Cerutty's Chris Judd on calling Silver's surge and if investors have now missed the boat

Gold may have surged past US$5,000 for the first time in its history, but its younger sibling, silver, is now stealing the spotlight.

Yesterday, the precious metal recorded its best session since the 1980s when it shot up 14% to US$117 before settling back around US$110. 

If gold's ongoing rally has re-solidified its reputation as a reliable hedge, a confluence of factors has left silver as the speculative trade du jour for investors plugged in to the so-called debasement trade and commodities rebound. 

One of those who called this ongoing silver rally was Cerutty Macro Fund founder and portfolio manager Chris Judd. Back in early December, Judd told Matthew Kidman that silver could have more upside than gold, despite already outperforming it in 2025. 

As he said back then, "we still think [silver] has some catching up to do."

According to Judd, it was simply part of a "catch-up trade", given gold had more than doubled its previous cycle highs while silver was only 20% above its own cycle highs. 

"In a gold bull market, we’d expect silver to outperform gold," he says now. "Since gold started its most recent bull run, up until recently, silver has lagged significantly. We felt not only would silver catch up, but would outperform gold should the bull market in precious metals continue."

That thesis was proven right, with silver now up more than 50% in 2026 alone.

The reasons for the rally are multiple, says Judd, from structural supply limitations to industrial demand and ongoing fears around US dollar devaluation.

"The global silver market is in its fifth consecutive year of deficits, with mine production stagnating," says Judd. "Most silver is produced as a byproduct, meaning that supply can be hard to turn on when demand shifts."

"Industrial demand for silver from applications like solar, EVs, data centres, defence, et cetera, is incredibly strong and complements the demand for silver as a monetary asset."

With a markedly smaller market cap compared to gold, silver has suggested it has plenty more room to run. If gold is a blue chip, silver is a small cap, and its price action can move accordingly. 

Morgan Stanley named precious and base metals its "Major Theme" for 2026, given the gathering macro tailwinds like rate cuts, geopolitical risk and central bank buying. 

Silver, alongside gold, also featured heavily in the list of best-performing ETFs in 2025, whether through ETFs tracking the price of physical silver or as part of broader mining, precious metal or energy metal funds. 

GlobalX's Global X Physical Silver ETF has also been the most traded ETF in Australia on multiple days this month. 

For investors who have looked for exposure to the silver trade beyond spot silver, there have been plenty of opportunities both here and abroad. 

On the ASX, more than half a dozen silver miners are up more than 100% over the last 12 months. Sun Silver (ASX: SS1) and Silver Mines Limited (ASX: SVL) are up more than 220%. 

Judd says the Cerutty Macro Fund currently holds some small ASX silver names and has held some of the bigger names in the past.

In the US, First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG) has rallied 360% over the last year.

Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE: WPM) is another that has more than doubled in the last year, and which Cerutty has held in the past, though Judd now views as very expensive. 

Most notably, Hycroft Mining (NYSE: HYMC) has rocketed more than 2,200%, despite no revenue and its Nevada gold and silver mine is still only in the development and exploration phase. 

For investors only considering silver now, the equation is different, says Judd. 

"With silver at these levels, to enter the trade now, we feel investors are almost backing that a once-in-a-lifetime event is occurring - that a changing of the monetary system is happening. I’ll leave it to other investors to decide if that change is happening or not." 

Former JPMorgan chief strategist Marko Kolanovic is stridently bearish. In a post on X/Twitter, he wrote that he expects silver to trade 50% lower later this year based on how historical bubbles in commodities have played out and the fact that the current rally is a result of “meme traders attempting to take over the market.”

For Judd, it ultimately comes down to whether you think the silver rally is part of a broader reshaping of the global monetary order, away from US dollars towards precious metals and other assets. 

"We can see both sides of how to attack this idea," he says. "I’m sympathetic to the idea that the odds aren’t great if you’re investing for a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence, but at the same time I’m also sympathetic to the view that if you are living through a once-in-a-hundred-year event, you’d be crazy if you missed it."

Either way, in the short-term he expects the silver rally to serve up more fireworks.

"We think it will be volatile and is due a correction, but yes, we think it still has some way to continue."