“Superforecasters”, those that consistently beat the crowd, tend to be methodical, analytical and collect information from a variety of sources. They are unlikely to be relying on emotive predictions from CNBC presenters. In examining things from every angle, they invariably start by trying to establish rough probability of an outcome, the ‘base rate’. Superforecasters then seek to refine this view by approaching things from other angles; looking for information which might assist in refining this view to a greater degree of accuracy. Assessing a broad range of sources, ensuring disparity of views, avoiding ‘group think’, ensuring objectivity of data and a host of other factors are important in improving forecast accuracy. This type of framework and discipline should be intuitively appealing for those of us seeking to improve our own efforts. You can read further at “Taking Stock: Thank you sir, may I have another?” (VIEW LINK)
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