Two quick charts looking at the risk and return trade-off between ASX equities and ASX major bank hybrids. The first chart considers the current cash (unfranked) and fully franked dividend yield on the ASX200 index versus a range of major bank hybrid yields in both franked and unfranked terms. The... Show More
In my AFR column I explain the consequences of Labor leader Bill Shorten's proposed new taxes for shares, property and hybrids---it's worth noting that even the Greens appear to have a problem with the notion of king-hitting prudent retirees with the Greens' leader vocally criticising Shorten's desire to deny retirees... Show More
Labor leader Bill Shorten is certainly bold when it comes to assaulting the financial heartlands of Australian housing, equities and super. Show More
The sky is not falling was the message in September 2017. Our message was that the overall market did not show excessive valuations, which generally is a precursor to stock market corrections. However, our market outlook dimmed due to recent ‘risk-on’ rally, where most of the year’s return was delivered... Show More
Mining 101: a good mining company makes money at the low end of a steep cost-curve. This is BHP’s strategy and it is working wonders in iron ore. However, in 2011 BHP forgot this simple rule. Deal hungry and with cash flow burning a hole in the pocket after two... Show More
Here goes 10 charts on the S&P500 which evoke both bullish and bearish thoughts. The bearish ones are generally shorter-term in nature while the bullish ones are more medium term... The simplest way to reconcile it is that we could easily see a correction early this year before the market... Show More
We believe that bond yields have finally bottomed. As they begin to increase gradually, investors can expect a higher ‘risk-free’ return from longer term government bonds. This, in turn, should see a jump in the required returns from other riskier asset classes such as equities, placing pressure on current valuations.... Show More
As a fan of dystopian classics such as Huxley’s ‘Brave New World’ and Orwell’s ‘1984’, Martin Conlon, Schroders’ Head of Australian equites, finds their insights into the perils of searching for a manipulated utopia alarmingly relevant to today’s financial world. As a rationalist, he suggests the benefits of manipulating asset... Show More
‘Oh, Inverted World’ is the title of the 2001 album of the US indie band The Shins. It's a good description of todays’ topsy turvey world created by loose monetary policy. One big distortion in the anomaly we see in stock pricing tied to business duration. Much-used discounted-cash flow analysis... Show More
From my AFR column today: "I don't think Australian bank shareholders are cognisant of the risk that if equity capital ratios fall modestly, there are new automatic restrictions imposed by the regulator on the distribution of earnings that mean dividends may not be paid. In fact, it is likely that... Show More