Two quick charts looking at the risk and return trade-off between ASX equities and ASX major bank hybrids. The first chart considers the current cash (unfranked) and fully franked dividend yield on the ASX200 index versus a range of major bank hybrid yields in both franked and unfranked terms. The... Show More
In my AFR column I explain the consequences of Labor leader Bill Shorten's proposed new taxes for shares, property and hybrids---it's worth noting that even the Greens appear to have a problem with the notion of king-hitting prudent retirees with the Greens' leader vocally criticising Shorten's desire to deny retirees... Show More
Labor leader Bill Shorten is certainly bold when it comes to assaulting the financial heartlands of Australian housing, equities and super. Show More
The sky is not falling was the message in September 2017. Our message was that the overall market did not show excessive valuations, which generally is a precursor to stock market corrections. However, our market outlook dimmed due to recent ‘risk-on’ rally, where most of the year’s return was delivered... Show More
Mining 101: a good mining company makes money at the low end of a steep cost-curve. This is BHP’s strategy and it is working wonders in iron ore. However, in 2011 BHP forgot this simple rule. Deal hungry and with cash flow burning a hole in the pocket after two... Show More
Here goes 10 charts on the S&P500 which evoke both bullish and bearish thoughts. The bearish ones are generally shorter-term in nature while the bullish ones are more medium term... The simplest way to reconcile it is that we could easily see a correction early this year before the market... Show More
We believe that bond yields have finally bottomed. As they begin to increase gradually, investors can expect a higher ‘risk-free’ return from longer term government bonds. This, in turn, should see a jump in the required returns from other riskier asset classes such as equities, placing pressure on current valuations.... Show More
As a fan of dystopian classics such as Huxley’s ‘Brave New World’ and Orwell’s ‘1984’, Martin Conlon, Schroders’ Head of Australian equites, finds their insights into the perils of searching for a manipulated utopia alarmingly relevant to today’s financial world. As a rationalist, he suggests the benefits of manipulating asset... Show More
‘Oh, Inverted World’ is the title of the 2001 album of the US indie band The Shins. It's a good description of todays’ topsy turvey world created by loose monetary policy. One big distortion in the anomaly we see in stock pricing tied to business duration. Much-used discounted-cash flow analysis... Show More
From my AFR column today: "I don't think Australian bank shareholders are cognisant of the risk that if equity capital ratios fall modestly, there are new automatic restrictions imposed by the regulator on the distribution of earnings that mean dividends may not be paid. In fact, it is likely that... Show More
The surprise 'Brexit' vote result towards quarter end served as a stark reminder of increasingly tenuous linkage between the financial economy and the real economy. Politicians and those connected to the financial economy were almost universally in favour of remaining part of the EU. Warnings of the consequences of exiting... Show More
Bubbles, by definition, exaggerate the span of multiples paid for cashflow streams in equity markets, as in squeezing up the favoured they tend to emaciate the orphans. In early to mid-2000, Computershare was the most favoured poster child for technology stocks listed in Australia. In current terms, its share price... Show More
A great chart from CommSec looking at different asset class returns over the long run. Interesting to note the recent break higher from property investment... "Total returns on Australian shares are currently up 0.6 per cent over 2015/16. Returns on dwellings are up 13.9 per cent while returns on government... Show More
The interaction between valuation, sentiment as calibrated through price momentum, and policy is key. Differences in the valuation of cyclical stocks relative to defensive industrial stocks has only through the past quarter moved slightly away from hitherto unseen extreme levels. Sentiment, as ever, has followed this move, as measured through... Show More
We believe expectations of ongoing deflationary conditions (which are spurious in any case, as they depend on the particular prices on which one chooses to focus) are, like the prevailing investment methodologies, anchored in extrapolation rather than logic. Added to bond portfolios which have rarely been larger or more ludicrously... Show More
Last month I interviewed Head of Australian Equities, Martin Conlon, on the current positioning of the Schroder Australian Equity Fund and our views as we look forward. More recently we have seen a turnaround in the market leaders, with the Fund benefiting from Resources and Energy outperforming the interest rate... Show More
Australian Banks have enjoyed a generational “stronger for longer” that dwarfs anything the resources market enjoyed before the consequent fall. BHP this year will make the same ebit it made a decade ago; CBA made $5b pre tax a decade ago and will make $13b this year. The driver for... Show More
Nothing propels the highs, higher, nor the lows, lower. Consider the oil sensitives - Qantas as a winner and Origin Energy as a loser. Woodside has of course underperformed because it shares a reliance upon the oil price for its economics, but its underperformance has been half of Origin’s. Part... Show More
At last, some diversity. The March quarter for the ASX saw a myriad of stocks and sectors lead and lag in performance. A motley lot – South32, Medibank Private, Newcrest, Vicinity, Santos and Transurban – were the best performers, whereas Macquarie, Incitec, the major banks, Computershare, Woolworths and Caltex were... Show More
A lot of Australians need to get out more! Generally, allocations to international equities are very light for most investors, even though Australia represents less than 2% of global market cap. With this in mind, a lot of investors still prefer the comfort of investing in locally listed vehicles. The... Show More
