Macro outlook: Despite short term stimulus reprieves, the medium to long term global market dynamics point to slowing global growth, weaker commodity prices and lower interest rates. The US Fed backflip has delivered another short term relief for commodity prices while longer term inflation pressures will force the USD higher. The US Fed’s move back to currency wars will force other central banks back to further easing bias to drive growth. Growing debt and deficit problems have forced governments to deliver a low risk and low growth agenda to support their political election outlook. The conflicting monetary and fiscal policy settings will continue to prolong the recovery cycle. China has continued to pump up old industries to keep unemployment in check despite over supply issues. The markets are likely to experience risk off mode in the near future and commodity prices are likely to be collateral damage. (VIEW LINK)
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