Today I wanted to provide some depth on how we use VIX products to manage risk in The Vega Fund portfolio. As far as we know, we’re the first fund in Australia to hedge in this particular fashion and hence some clarity is warranted. It’s not the only tool in... Show More
It’s been nearly six months since Marks’ last memo. In the absence of any major shift in global markets, he has taken the opportunity to discuss a more ‘big picture’ issue – the removal of human beings from the investment process. This comes in three main forms; passive or index... Show More
Aussie market's up trend is about to break as US optimism struggles to support stretched multiples. Aussie markets has experienced profit taking cycles every 2-3 months over the last year. We estimate downside risk in the short term to be around 5-7%. High PE growth stocks will once again be... Show More
Best periods for Spot Gold...Jan-Feb and Jul-Sep. Gold will benefit from rising market risk and declining USD as global markets move from fantasy to reality in US fiscal policy outcomes. If the market is right, then inflation and rates will go up. If the market is wrong, then profit taking... Show More
US volatility index has come down to current levels five times in the last decade. Every time the market ran into short term profit taking cycle with rising volatility. Show More
Global markets are moving from deflation and low rates to an inflation and rate rising environment. Recovering economies will deliver growth while struggling economies will see capital outflows. The changing global dynamics will continue to push investors towards a better equilibrium between growth and yield. We see this transition driving... Show More
Global markets are beginning to digest the stretched valuations, high yields and strong currency ahead of the US Fed meeting. The aggregate policy outlook from the new administration is expected to push up inflation and debt in the process of raising growth. The inflation rally since October has been running... Show More
Global markets are flip flopping with the US market hitting all time highs. US fiscal policy uncertainty, historically low volatility, a rising USD, rising yields and stretched valuations are raising doubts on the recent exuberance in the equity market. Strong commodities along with a robust USD and rising yields suggests... Show More
Global markets are digesting the US election results while the US Fed rate hike in December hangs in the balance. The aggregate policy outlook from the new administration is expected to push up inflation and debt in the process of raising growth. Rising inflation will attract higher interest rates and... Show More
Global market worries are all about US presidential election in the short term while Italian referendum and US Fed rates cycle are the next road blocks ahead. The potential end of easing cycle locally and the rate hike in US will support the yield outlook in the Australian banking sector... Show More
Global markets are running into a weaker US reporting season, US Presidential election and major central bank updates on interest rate cycles. We continue to expect the RBA to stay on hold until 2017 after recent inflation and employment data. US Fed and BOJ are expected to hold fire next... Show More
Global markets are moving past US Fed and US election worries as the US reporting season starts to test stretched multiples. A recent bond squeeze has delivered a bounce in yields, whilst a medium to long term outlook suggests that bond yields will settle in the slightly higher range from... Show More
Global markets are beginning to move past the recent macro concerns as clarity improves. The US election cycle and US Fed interest rate cycle both remain in line with market expectations. ECB tapering optimism has Brexit and the Italian referendum as road blocks. Central banks are on a supporting bias... Show More
Global market volatility is being driven by US Fed interest rate cycle worries and ECB tapering worries. The yield trade will continue to see support as interest rates remain low for longer. Small cap SHIELD stocks continue to outperform the large caps and the overall market over the last year.... Show More
Global markets are looking at US Presidential election and Italian referendum as the next key risk catalysts. Central banks are running out of ammunition and are being forced into even more complex and creative ways to drive asset bubbles. Central banks are becoming the new global reality stars for the... Show More
Macro outlook: The low volatility and crowded nature of investor holdings suggest Show More
Global markets have pulled back on central bank uncertainty. The yield squeeze in the bond markets pushed yield up from the lows and put pressure on stretched equity market valuations. We continue to expect all central banks except the US Fed to remain in an easing bias, while the US... Show More
Global markets are currently going through the cyclical September pullback on heightened macro concerns. Markets may start to worry about the patches of weakness in US economic growth ahead of the Presidential election. We maintain the view that the US Fed will only move in December and the move will... Show More
Global markets are currently going through the cyclical September pullback on heightened macro worries. We see global growth remaining weak while easing bias from most central banks will support more stimulus when stabilising force is needed. The US rate cycle will be pushed back to December and the worry is... Show More
Central banks on easing bias, US Fed moving away from interest rate raising cycle and China stimulus will support commodities in the next 6-12 months. Despite the outperformance in the gold sector over the last 9mths, we continue to see more upside and maintain our buy call on the gold... Show More
