Aggregate fiscal support appears to exceed falls in aggregate income over the 6 months (per Tim Toohey at Yarra) but falls in income wont be spread evenly which will generate the arrears. Also falls in non wage income (negatively geared apartment) would exacerbate this. Is there data on the mortgage balances associated with those who have lost income and jobs?
Hi Mark, thanks for the question. You are correct that it has not been evenly spread. From the home loan data I've seen, small business owners have been hit particularly hard. Personal loan data is showing lower income/casual workers (often hospitality, retail, tourism) faring much better than was expected. This would align with the stimulus payments, which have seen some workers with limited hours getting pay rises.
HI Jonathan. Great write up. One thing I would like to see is how the government stimulus fares when measured against mortgage owners monthly expenses outside of the 2 capital cities. LCOL, lower mortgages.... it may be quite doable.
Thanks David, if you are buying a house for $200,000 in a regional centre with an interest rate of less than 3% monthly P&I repayments will be around $1,000. The rent versus buy equation is much more favourable to buyers in most regional areas.