Housing to boom with bears dropping like flies

Christopher Joye

Coolabah Capital

In this detailed interview with the irrepressible Peter Switzer, I discuss why house prices are now increasing in all cities bar Melbourne (yes, it appears that Sydney house prices have now stopped falling and may be starting to climb again). I also explain why the many vocal housing bears calling for 10%, 15%, 20%, and 30% house price falls have all proven to be far too pessimistic. It might seem like this comes from a preternatural bull, but these monikers are redundant: we are simply paid to get the future right. Coolabah was bullish housing between 2012 to 2017, were the first analysts to call for a 10% drop in national house prices in early 2017, which is exactly what we got, and were then the first analysts to forecast a 10% increase in house prices in April 2019, which is what the market delivered over the next 12 months. In March this year Coolabah argued house prices would only correct very modestly by 0% to 5% over a six month period following which they would increase by 10% to 20% over the next few years. In the six months since we made that call, CoreLogic's eight capital city index has declined only 2.8%, and is now set to start increasing again...The bears are all running for the hills, with the likes of CBA, Westpac, Capital Economics and others being forced to embrace Coolabah's heterodox position.


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General Disclaimer: Past performance does not assure future returns. All investments carry risks, including that the value of investments may vary, future returns may differ from past returns, and that your capital is not guaranteed. This information has been prepared by Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd (ACN 153 327 872). It is general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice. You should not rely on any information herein in making any investment decisions. To the extent permitted by law, no liability is accepted for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) for the funds should be considered before deciding whether to acquire or hold units in it. A PDS for these products can be obtained by visiting www.coolabahcapital.com. Neither Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd, EQT Responsible Entity Services Ltd (ACN 101 103 011), Equity Trustees Ltd (ACN 004 031 298) nor their respective shareholders, directors and associated businesses assume any liability to investors in connection with any investment in the funds, or guarantees the performance of any obligations to investors, the performance of the funds or any particular rate of return. The repayment of capital is not guaranteed. Investments in the funds are not deposits or liabilities of any of the above-mentioned parties, nor of any Authorised Deposit-taking Institution. The funds are subject to investment risks, which could include delays in repayment and/or loss of income and capital invested. Past performance is not an indicator of nor assures any future returns or risks. Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 and is an authorised representative #001277030 of EQT Responsible Entity Services Ltd that holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 223271. Equity Trustees Ltd that holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 240975. Forward-Looking Disclaimer: This information may contain some forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Such forward-looking statements necessarily involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual performance and financial results in future periods to differ materially from any projections of future performance or result expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements if circumstances or management’s estimates or opinions should change except as required by applicable securities laws. The reader is cautioned not to rely on forward-looking statements.

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Christopher Joye
Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Officer
Coolabah Capital

Chris co-founded Coolabah in 2011, which today runs $7 billion with a team of 33 executives focussed on generating credit alpha from mispricings across fixed-income markets. In 2019, Chris was selected as one of FE fundinfo’s Top 10 “Alpha...

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