How your ETF picks beat the ASX 200 and S&P 500

I may be biased, but it seems to me that you, our readers, have a pretty strong hit rate when it comes to identifying many of the market themes that matter.

Over the year, global stocks were shaped by a handful of dominant forces: the rise of AI and mega-cap leadership, a rotation of capital across regions, and a renewed focus on income.

The ETFs most tipped by Livewire and Market Index readers for 2025 didn’t just participate in those themes - together, they ended up outperforming both the ASX 200 and the S&P 500 over the period.

In this wire, I review how key individual funds performed.

Your 10 most-tipped ETFs

Around a year ago, we asked our Livewire and Market Index readers for their most-tipped ETFs for 2025 as part of our annual Outlook Series Survey. Almost 5,000 of you took part. As we count down to the end of the year, it's time to revisit the picks and see how you got on.

Please note: We are sharing information from the Livewire and Market Index readerships by publishing this list. We hope it inspires ideas for your investment research. This information is not, nor is it intended to be, a set of recommendations. Please do your own research and seek advice from a professional. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future return.

Your 10 most-tipped ASX ETFs for 2025

The results highlight the importance of global diversification. While the ASX 200 returned around 11% over the past three years, it was exposure to global equities - particularly the US and technology - that added the real lift to returns.

Livewire readers also leaned into income strategies, with dividend ETFs delivering strong outcomes while avoiding some of the ASX’s biggest blow-ups. 

Those gains more than offset weaker performance from quality and value-based smart beta strategies, which have lagged in a market still dominated by momentum and speculative names.

The results

Key metrics

• Highest total return: iShares Global 100 ETF (ASX: IOO)
• Lowest total return: VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (ASX: MOAT)
• Average total return (equal-weighted): 11.61%
• ASX 200 total return: 8.16%
• S&P 500 total return: 10.08%
• Positive returns: 10 out of 10 ETFs (100%!)
• Dividend yield: 3.16%
• Highest income contribution: Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (ASX: VHY)

What stands out immediately is the absence of blow-ups. Every ETF on the list delivered a positive return over the period, though the sources of those returns differed meaningfully.

Global diversification did the heavy lifting

The strongest performer, the iShares Global 100 ETF (ASX: IOO), benefited from more than its nearly-50% allocation to technology.

While roughly 80% of the fund is US-listed, the balance is spread across Europe, Asia and emerging markets - regions that attracted capital as investors rotated away from US concentration and valuation risk. Japan and Europe, in particular, saw renewed interest in relative value and diversification grounds.

A long tail of lower-weighted stocks across healthcare, financials and industrials, including names such as AstraZeneca and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, also contributed, allowing the fund to participate across multiple market themes.

ETF

iShares Global 100 ETF (IOO)

Global Shares

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Mega-cap milestones drove index-heavy tech ETFs

Funds such as the Global X FANG+ ETF (ASX: FANG) and the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ) were again driven by sustained global interest in one of the market’s dominant themes this year: artificial intelligence (AI). The iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV) also benefited in the rally, given ~35% of the index holds technology.

Within the AI theme, performance was driven less by speculation and more by a series of major re-ratings and upgrades among trillion-dollar-plus companies.

That said, the second half of the year also brought a more sober tone. Investors began to question how quickly heavy AI capital expenditure would translate into sustainable returns, particularly where financing appeared circular or growth expectations stretched. 

Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) is a case in point - after rising more than 100% earlier in the year, the stock gave back around 40% from its September peak.

ETF

Global X FANG+ ETF (FANG)

Global Shares

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Australia: A tale of two factors

The performance of the Australian sharemarket this year depends largely on the lens you use.

The income-focused Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (ASX: VHY) delivered a strong 13.66% total return, while the broader market, represented by the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS) - returned roughly five percentage points less.

That outcome is unusual. Broader indices tend to outperform dividend strategies due to their greater exposure to growth stocks.

The difference this year came down to income. The chart below shows while VAS delivered a bit better capital growth, VHY ultimately won the race thanks to its 8.53% in total dividends, compared with just 3.20% for VAS.

Notably, VHY's methodology either screened out or held materially lower weightings to several of the ASX’s biggest underperformers.

Stocks such as CSL, Aristocrat Leisure, Xero, WiseTech and Amcor - all down roughly 15% to 35% for the year - had only modest or no influence on VHY’s returns, despite being meaningful constituents of the broader index, given its focus on above-market dividend yields.

The ETF currently offers a base yield of around 4.3%, or 5.8% grossed-up once franking credits are included.

ETF

Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (VHY)

Australian Shares

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A so-so year for quality

The VanEck MSCI International Quality ETF (ASX: QUAL) and the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (ASX: MOAT) delivered positive but more muted returns over the period.

QUAL lagged more growth-heavy global ETFs as investors favoured broad market exposure over factor tilts, while MOAT’s valuation discipline meant it avoided some of the strongest momentum names. In both cases, income helped support total returns, even as capital growth trailed higher-beta peers.

The result was steady participation without fireworks, highlighting the trade-off investors make when prioritising balance-sheet strength and valuation discipline in a strongly risk-on market.

ETF

VanEck MSCI International Quality ETF (QUAL)

Global Shares

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The year’s standout performers

As solid as the average return was among the most-tipped ETFs, the table below shows where the real standout gains came from this year.

Have your say for 2026

The 2026 Outlook Series is now open. By participating in the survey, you’ll help shape our coverage in 2026 to meet your investing needs. All survey participants will receive early access to 40 big investing ideas for 2026, including:

• Ten fundies’ #1 growth stock picks
• Livewire readers’ 10 most-tipped growth stocks, income picks and ETFs

You might also be one of three lucky people to score a $250 gift card (closes 5 pm AEST, Wednesday 17 Dec).

TAKE PART HERE