You can count on one hand the number of successful macro investors in the world. Howard Marks, founder of the $100 billion Oaktree Capital, generally doesn't play at this game, but is there ever a time to get out of the market? "When there's a demonstrable bubble. When psychology is crazy-bullish, risks are extremely high, and valuations are extremely high. Implicitly, I'm saying I don't think that's today." He still urges caution, however, stating that risks are "elevated." With the PE ratio at around 19 times for the S&P 500, it's above the post-war average of 16, but well below the levels set in 2000 of 32 times. The other condition for a bubble is “bubble thinking." Bubble thinking says "nothing bad can happen, there's no price too high, this can't lose." In the full video below, he discusses whether the future will be better than the past:
18:01 - Howard Marks on the credentials to win a US election... great stuff
HM: 5.5% p.a. looks like the 'most reasonable' return investors should expect over the foreseeable future...
Excellent overview. Highly articulate and persuasive view of the future outlook and risks.
He calls himself a micro investor
He seems to be against globalisation and automation which has played a big part in our recent prosperity, certainly in this country. There may be negative aspects to globalisation and automation, but seeing them as the problem is throwing the baby out with the bathwater.