Is now the time to buy ASX uranium stocks? Analysis of the latest uranium technical and fundamental factors

You should now be an expert on determining when my trend model will declare the start of the next uranium bull market. The short term uptrend is a check, the neutralisation of the long term trend is a check, the recent price action of rising peaks and rising troughs is a check – all excellent indications of increasing demand versus supply.

Now, we must see the uranium price set a trough above the long term trend ribbon, therefore signalling it’s starting to act as a dynamic excess demand zone. If/when we see this signal, my model confirms the start of a new long term uptrend, and therefore the start of a new bull market in uranium.

How long will this take? The answer is: As long as it takes…I can’t tell the future! But based on experience, on order of magnitude at least a few days, but more likely a few weeks. Hey uranium bulls – you’ve waited this long – what’s a few more weeks!?

Uranium fundamental analysis factors

In a research report released on the weekend called "Uranium – keep calm and carry (trade) on", Canadian based broking firm Canaccord Genuity ("CG") has provided an assessment of the present uranium price environment and its outlook for global uranium stocks.

CG is a long time, and judging by their new report, continuing long term uranium bull. Here is a summary of their findings.

Uranium demand factors

• New demand is still coming online (broker cites):

  • “Reactor life extensions, up rates, restarts, and new builds – particularly in China – are accelerating demand growth.”

  • Google has committed to funding three advanced reactor project sites, each capable of producing 600MW.

  • Reports indicating White House energy policy may soon tilt towards accelerating nuclear energy deployment.

• Term contracting is insufficient to cover future needs: “Term contracting remains well below replacement rates and last cycle averages, a trend that cannot be sustained as demand grows.”

• Trump’s trade war has had a negative impact on utilities demand: “Whilst demand for uranium is fundamentally inelastic, this volatility has caused utilities – which typically hold 2-3 years of inventory – to delay procurement decisions.”

Uranium supply factors

• The supply side is struggling to grow: “Production has largely underdelivered, with ongoing operational, regulatory, and geopolitical challenges constraining near-term supply.”

• Secondary sources of supply (i.e., from utilities stockpiles, recycling spent nuclear fuel, and decommissioning nuclear warheads) are “dwindling”, with inventories also at the “lower end” of utility targets.

• Supply discipline from major producers like Canada’s Cameco (TSE: CCO) and deferred project pipelines (from BMN and DYL) reflect increasingly higher incentive prices for new production. The market will need to reflect the realities of marginal supply or face a greater deficit down the track, “Cost curves are pushing to the right and utilities will need to underwrite these costs.”

Uranium price forecasts

CG concedes recent price weakness was caused by “weak demand from buyers, forced sales (e.g., uncontracted producers), and tariff uncertainty”. Much of that weak demand was due to utilities consumers baulking at the 2023-24 price spike, and then playing a game of chicken with the falling spot price – seeing “how low it would go”.

The recent rebound, as noted in my technical analysis, can be attributed to increased liquidity resulting from both utilities companies and traders re-entering the spot market. CG believes both groups are trading the discrepancy between the lower spot price and the higher term price to some extent. This is known as the “carry trade”. (The term price is the price that long term demand-supply contracts between utilities companies and producers are written at).

CG estimates that as little as a US$9/lb discount between the term and spot prices makes the carry trade worthwhile for traders that hold long term contracts. These traders buy at spot and hold (i.e., “carry”) those pounds until scheduled delivery – enduring holding costs along the way but also earning a guaranteed arbitrage profit in the process.

Utilities companies, as always, remain the critical swing factor. CG suggests they too have underpinned the recent rally, “Utilities, in 2025, as a group have purchased over 75% of the overall spot volume that they procured during all of 2024,” the broker notes.

The improved demand-supply dynamics of the spot uranium market over the last few weeks, plus the fact the term price is largely unbudged from 15-year highs of around US$80/lb during the spot price pullback, leads CG to postulate that the next leg up in uranium prices is “on the horizon”.

“We believe the sector’s historical pattern of sharp price moves following periods of stability suggests that a breakout could be imminent. We await the catalyst that will spur utilities, yet we note that pressure is building,” the broker notes.

What’s in store for the uranium price and ASX uranium stocks?

Bottom left-top right demand growth and a stagnant supply side that cannot keep up. Add in tantalising uranium price forecasts and the promises of exploding in earnings among producers. You’ve got to love a bullish narrative! Uranium appears to have everything investors desire in the next big thing stakes.

But! The technicals demonstrate very clearly that whilst a commodity’s narrative may remain bullish for years – its price can swing wildly between bull and bear. Narratives are a fairy tale, a warm blanket to wrap true believers in each night before they go to bed – justifying them not taking profits during the bull market as well as their holding on to devastating losses during bears.

Price action, i.e., the interaction between demand and supply, however, is the undeniable truth. Both the demand and supply sides know way more about the commodity than any punter buying and holding based on a fairy tale narrative. For now, regardless of your poison – technicals or fundamentals – there does appear to be at least some justification for a more bullish view on the uranium price.

Canaccord Genuity have made it very clear their views on how this fledgling improvement will play out – they’re unequivocally bullish – and I’ll do a follow up to this article later in the week to check up on how CG and other brokers are presently viewing ASX-listed uranium stocks.

As for the technicals, I would love nothing more than to call the start of the next uranium bull market – just as I called the start and end of the last one. If you wish to read that call when it happens, then be sure to tune into ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap for my regular uranium technical analysis updates.

Want to know more about the price cycle in uranium and other commodities? This article is compulsory reading for all investors in commodities and commodities stocks: Riding the Commodity Price Cycle: The definitive investor guide.