Marcus Padley’s plan for the next big rebound

In 2025, one of the most controversial interviews we published on Livewire was Marcus Padley's decision to go to 100% cash in October, after he denounced “the world has gone mad.”

“The stock market has become a dangerous place and the rise of gold is not fabulous, it’s ominous,” the veteran stockbroker said, after showing us a picture of hordes of investors clobbering to buy gold at Sydney’s Martin Place.

That article drew more than 50,000 views and nearly 100 comments - some which were critical of Padley’s decision - which he made at a time when tech stocks, Australian banks, small caps and commodities producers looked to be heading to the moon. 

But it’s fair to say he has been vindicated. Those same assets are down about 8-20% since that call. Padley, meanwhile, is staying cool and isn’t buying just yet. And the queues at ABC Bullion? Let's just say there's no more "waiting in line"...

This leads us to the burning questions: what’s he waiting for, and what’s he looking to buy?

Playing the rebound

Padley, whose investment philosophy is predicated on watching the herd - not necessarily following it - had warned of excesses everywhere. But he’s not convinced we’re at the bottom just yet - and he's staying vigilant.

“Our goal is to time the bottom and we spend every day assessing ‘when’ that moment has arrived. Note ‘arrived’ - not ‘will arrive’,” he says.

Padley says his team at Marcus Today takes inspiration from legendary investor Ray Dalio’s use of principles, but has written its own playbook. One of the key rules: “react, don’t predict.”

“Everything is going our way at the moment … and we may get our irresistible buying opportunity."

Among the key signals he’s looking for is a top in the oil price.

“The oil price has to peak - that’s the sign (not war ending) and it has to peak on firm evidence the oil market is going back to normal."

Padley reckons we could get a “good big day”, just like the one in April last year when Trump announced a 90-day pause on his global tariffs. But there’s a caveat - he’s mindful of false promises from erratic market rebounds.

“The anatomy of every turning point is different and by the time it comes it may have changed again ... but generally the market is always obsessing about something, when that something changes the market tends to top or bottom.”

What’s on the watchlist?

Padley previously made the decision to go 100% cash in February 2025, and jumped back in time for the April rally, locking in a 20.7% return for the MT20 portfolio. The strategy recently surpassed $100 million and is using the Betashares Australian High Interest Cash ETF (ASX: AAA) to wait out the storm.

Last year's returns were largely made from big positions in tech-related ETFs. His watchlist now consists of sectors that have been beaten down or could see strong rallies after the cloud of uncertainty is lifted. A few names include:

• iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV)
• Global X Physical Gold ETF (ASX: GOLD)
• Global X AI Infrastructure ETF (ASX: AINF)
• Global X Copper Miners ETF (ASX: WIRE)
• Global X US 100 ETF (ASX: U100)
• Global X Semiconductor ETF (ASX: SEMI)
• VanEck Australian Resources ETF (ASX: MVR)

Criticism of modern portfolios

Padley remains critical of the adage “time in the market, not timing in the market” and the Modern Portfolio Theory framework, which promotes “hyper diversification with no conviction.”

He points to the recent market chaos which has not only hammered stocks, but has broken traditional portfolio defenses including Australian fixed income and unhedged gold, which are down about 2% and 15%, respectively, since the war broke out.

“The practical result is that it teaches Australian financial advisers to stick their clients in twenty managed funds and trust in the long term,” he says.

While Padley may have copped some flak for making big calls, he’s sticking with his mantra.

“We’ve found something that works, we’ll just keep doing it.”

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