Momentum is now every investor's dilemma

Price charts showing the price of spot silver over the past two years are indicative of how financial markets are nowadays operating.

After underperforming its bigger brother gold bullion, at some point in 2025 silver caught the upward momentum wave of ever more enthusiastic buyers, and that price simply flew to the moon and beyond.

I remember sitting in front of my desktop pc, staring at my social media feed, with one eye focused on online news elsewhere, and thinking: is there anyone still around (outside of my lonely self) who's not on board this runaway train?

As per usual, there were all kinds of narratives accommodating the newfound mass interest in silver --some fundamental, some technicals, some cyclical, some macro, and some industrial-- but what everyone who was not on board was able to see (that's me again) is that it had as much to do with human psychology, the comfort and justification when in group, and the attraction of a strong uptrend in price.

Let me correct that last sentence: by the time I was making my observation, silver had long out-rallied whatever original justification there was and its uptrend had become a momentum-led crowded trade.

There was always going to be a sizeable bend in that uptrend, but picking the exact pivot is easier done with the assistance of Harry Hindsight.

The speculation-driven blow-off peak was reached in January this year. Five months of hindsight clearly show things got a bit crazy back then. 

Also note; in the run up the silver price more than doubled in about three months.

• The price of silver is now circa -30% below its peak, but also some 40% up still from when the last leg took off
• Silver outperformed gold to the upside, and has since heavily underperformed (that's how a more risky asset traditionally behaves)
• Measured in AUD the correction from the peak is closer to -50% (showing the extra complication from FX)
• Those narratives... funny, but I rarely still see them popping up
• Gold held its elevated pricing for longer, but has since also succumbed to a (less severe) downtrend

True proponents of having exposure to silver still believe the longer-term investment thesis continues to have merit, but how does one reconcile this with what has happened over the past nine months?

That's every investor's dilemma right now.

Obvious options available are:

• Sitting in cheaply priced market laggards, ignoring what's happening elsewhere, while remaining confident the market's pendulum will swing your way at some point
• Sitting in cash, waiting for such 'bubbles' to pop, expecting post-peak prices to exaggerate to the downside
• Playing momentum with the crowds, doing your utmost best not to stay on board for too long or get sucked in with the deflating downtrend

In a share market as polarised as in 2026, fundamentals, sentiment and technicals mix rather easily to form the next runaway rally, as has also happened with hardware linked to data centre buildouts since March.

That momentum is now deflating in June. If the silver experience can be our guide, a sharp pull back should be expected, with a big chunk of the prior uptrend to remain in place.

Since September last year, gold has experienced two sharp corrections that subsequently saw its rally resume, but the aftermath of the third correction is now taking a lot longer to digest.

Arguably, the forward-looking context for gold has become less ebullient over that period (higher oil means higher inflation means higher bond yields, a negative for gold in the here and now).

That Super Cycle (The Other One)

Given the firm underlying fundamentals underpinning hardware demand to satisfy the multi-billions of investments into data centres, those memory-chip companies that have been all the rage post March should enjoy solid buying support for much longer but excess enthusiasm will just as easily accumulate and this implies hefty pull backs along the way.

Like the one we're witnessing this month.

Until the fundamental outlook changes, of course, but it appears such change seems implausible in the near term.

As things stand, hyperscalers Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft et al, alongside the emerging AI development giants of Anthropic and OpenAI, remain committed in their hundreds of billions in spending on the infrastructure buildout of the new, world-changing technology.

Such strong demand has effectively created a super cycle for hardware providers that simply cannot increase supply by major leaps in a short time. That's the proposition in a nutshell.

Outcome: super cycle for the whole sector on much higher product pricings.

Of course, as every critic watching from the sidelines will assure us, this dynamic will not remain in place forever. Those voices are correct. But 'forever' is not what drives market momentum in the here and now.

One can also see this on the ASX, where, strictly taken, there are no genuine competitors or peers to companies like Sandisk, Samsung, SK Hynix, and the like, but that doesn't stop local traders to jump on Weebit Nano (WBT), BrainChip (BRN), or BluGlass (BLG).

(Never let the lack of solid fundamentals ruin a great momentum story).

One other --equally speculative-- potential future opportunity was highlighted by Morgan Stanley on Monday through Centuria Capital's (CNI) 50%-owned ResetData business' intention to build its own GPU-as-a-Service offering (success not guaranteed).

A less speculative, more fundamental based strategy in Australia is to play that data centre super cycle demand through local engineers and contract services providers with the likes of SRG Global (SRG) and Tasmea (TEA) increasingly seeking exposure, thus diluting their more traditional sources of income, like mining and energy.

It's the same operational switch that has --quite literally-- put a rocket under Megaport's (MP1) share price in recent months. 

And make no mistake, that's equally the reason why shares in Dicker Data (DDR) are now trading above $11 instead of below $8.50.

Caution Does Look Apposite

Whether the many sceptics like it or not (and they so do not like it), but ongoing strong fundamentals stemming from the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout is what has underpinned share markets while cost-of-living pressures and a lasting stand-off in the Middle East would suggest otherwise.

But this is not a time to be overly complacent, as also evident from the examples mentioned. It's but a small base that is driving major indices and there's a whole lot of speculation and momentum constantly accumulating in those trends that keep keeping on.

The more momentum accumulates, the higher the chances of a swift and sharp retreat. Whatever happens in the US will not go unnoticed in Australia (you get the idea).

Momentum has become the trade of the moment. Valuations are elevated (at least for those momentum-driven parts); more so in the US and in selected Asian markets than locally in Australia.

Bearish commentary is now multiplying at the speed of light.

Mid-term years in the US are supposed to be a disappointing experience. That can still be this year's outcome. Note Michael Howell, the world's most eminent expert on global liquidity, is seemingly getting more worried by the day.

Global liquidity is shrinking, which usually puts risk assets under pressure, albeit at a delay. The downtrend in Bitcoin is but one indicator.

Investors are probably best served by preparing for a more rocky time ahead. This is not a forecast per se, but more of a common sense approach.

On Thursday last week, I wrote Longview Economics' market signals are now signalling caution looks best for (up to) four months ahead.

Over the weekend Chief Market Strategist Chris Watling has repeated his prediction the coming number of weeks might look a whole lot different from the uptrend that preceded (at least in the US).

Key support levels to watch for the S&P500 according to Longview include:

• 7,043 -> the late January intraday day highs (approx. -5.1% pullback from current levels);
• 7,187 -> the S&P500s 50 day moving average (approx. -3.0% pullback from current levels); &
• 6,885 -> the S&P500s 200 day moving average (approx. -7.5% pullback from current levels).

On a broader macro level, the most important dilemma for investors is whether share market dynamics from, say, the past two years are indicative of how markets and money flows are changing, or whether this is simply the final excess that typifies this particular bull market?

I think it's the former. Markets have changed. It's up to each of us individually to take note and respond.

FNArena offers independent, impartial share market analysis and commentary, alongside proprietary tools and data, for self-researching and self-managing investors. The service can be trialed at fnarena.com