I like this analysis. The beauty of market is uncertainty. We will always have two views the same time, only one will be correct. But until it happens, no one knows.
Excellent article, Patrick. This intelligence should be broadcast far and wide.
I agree there are headwinds ahead but they will be industry/company specific with some industries smashed while others thrive by being relevant, or making themselves relevant. I'm waiting for OOH Media to start advertising on face masks.
Not everything falls during a crash. Does anyone have an idea about what might not fall? My suspicion is that the shares that have gone up might well be the ones that are supported by future structural shifts. Have they gone up too far? Or have the victims of the structural shifts not gone down far enough? Or is it both?
Great Question Rus, I'll try to find an opportunity to ask someone that question soon. Probably on my podcast.
"Does anyone have an idea about what might not fall? " asks Rus Watson (25th July). My crystal ball is somewhat tarnished but my speculative short term picks are those involved in PPE supplies, disinfectants and 'work at home' goods ranging from easy to cook foods (stick in the microwave) through to digital devices and related accessories. These are play money territory rather than serious long term investments imo.
Great article Patrick and can't disagree with any of the bear case arguments made. Couple of things worth including for the Bull case however: Low interest rates and no chance of that changing anytime soon; and There are already vaccines at Phase 3 (way ahead of usual time-lines). Fauci is now optimistic on vaccine by year end.