Sunset Strip > Trading Day Wrap From Blue Ocean 20170829

Mathan Somasundaram

Local market fell on the open and then made a slight recovery as North Korean missile test launch through Japanese airspace killed off the weak overnight global market sentiment. North Korean launched another test missile through Japanese airspace according to South Korea…more ammunition for risk off trade to remain in play. The oil price came off despite market expectation for oil bounce on Texas disaster issues. USD continues to fall against the Euro and that is weighing on the safety trade. The “Trump Bump” is turning into “Trump Dump” as the administration races against the clock to pull together both houses for financial sector deregulation. The head of US Fed and ECB poured cold water on the financial deregulation plans…but the failures of the Trump administration in health care and tax reform means they have no choice but to ramp through financial deregulation while Janet Yellen has made it very hard for Trump to leave her at her post in 2018. BOJ comments yesterday backed the view that they will remain accommodative for longer than expected while China continues to remove inefficient polluting supply side models and moving forwards with “Silk Road” global projects. Weaker US outlook and stable China means AUDUSD is likely to break above 80 cents in the short term while the market overall is positioned for a fall to low 70’s. No change to base metals overnight as UK LME market was closed. We maintain our positive view on commodities and safe haven investing in gold sector as US market risk plays out. The local reporting season continues to bat below average with more pain than gain. Retail sector saw more selling pressure after big discount in Whole Foods overnight after new owner Amazon flexed their muscle. Weak consumer spending and rising competition shows the risk in the local retailers and supermarkets. Local reporting cycle hits the last week…starting the week with weak global sentiment with not much macro till the back end of the week…stay nimble!!!

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