The Base Metal Boost

Callum Thomas

One of the themes I looked at in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes was Chinese fixed asset investment. One aspect of particular interest - especially for commodity markets, is the matter of Real Estate fixed asset investment. The chart below shows just how sensitive base metals are to changes in real estate development in China, and it goes to show how there is actually something (fundamental) to the rebound in certain commodities.

The rebound in property investment has come as a result of a number of measures the government introduced around 2015-16 to boost the property marke and encourage de-stocking. The issue is that these measures are not really sustainable, so while the party may keep going in the short-term, at some point China's property market will probably rollover - as I flagged in this video discussing the latest property price data and charts.


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Medium screen shot 2016 01 12 at 2.25.34 pm

James Marlay

Hi Callum, the video is showing now.

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