The Base Metal Boost

Callum Thomas

Topdown Charts

One of the themes I looked at in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes was Chinese fixed asset investment. One aspect of particular interest - especially for commodity markets, is the matter of Real Estate fixed asset investment.  The chart below shows just how sensitive base metals are to changes in real estate development in China, and it goes to show how there is actually something (fundamental) to the rebound in certain commodities. 

The rebound in property investment has come as a result of a number of measures the government introduced around 2015-16 to boost the property marke and encourage de-stocking. The issue is that these measures are not really sustainable, so while the party may keep going in the short-term, at some point China's property market will probably rollover - as I flagged in this video discussing the latest property price data and charts.

Callum Thomas
Head of Research
Topdown Charts

Callum is Head of Research at Topdown Charts. Topdown Charts is a chart-driven macro research house covering global Asset Allocation and Economics.

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.


Please sign in to comment on this wire.

trending on livewire
Get the best of Livewire by signing up to our popular daily newsletter