The latest IMF growth forecast revisions are more backward looking than an adjustment to what it expects in the future
The latest IMF growth forecast revisions are more backward looking than an adjustment to what it expects in the future. The IMF upped its 2014 forecast for the US economy from 2.6% in October to 3.0% in January. Since the October forecast, GDP estimates for the September and December quarters have been published. All of the forecast revision for 2014 comes from taking account of these two estimates. Growth estimates through the year have remained unchanged. And, yet, the IMF has talked about how US economic growth will accelerate through 2014. The current IMF forecasts imply quarterly growth rates in 2014 of 0.7%, a slower rate of growth than achieved in each of the last two quarters. The current numbers do not match the narrative. More substantial upgrades need to happen or the narrative needs to change.
John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...
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