The MACD on the daily chart is above zero for the first time since January 7 and highlights that the trend is to the upside. The key level the market will be looking for is 1.3845 (the downtrend drawn from the 2008 and 2011 highs), but it is clear the market doesn't want to be overweight the USD right now and with US data slowing down, traders and investors have been closing USD longs. In US trade we get Fed members Dennis Lockhart (04:15 AEST) and Jamie Bullard (05:00 AEST), while the Fed minutes are released at 06:00 AEST. If you look at the Fed fund rate the market is pricing in 56 basis point by the end of 2015, which is nineteen basis point below the Feds own forecast. Anyone who thought USD bulls would be testing the credibility of the Feds forward guidance seems mistaken at this stage.