The view from London: It's not that scary out there. Having spent the past 3 weeks travelling around Australia it is striking how pessimistic many people are. Perhaps this is a home bias at play; the outlook for Australia certainly looks set to diverge from that of other developed counties in the year ahead. From a global investment perspective however, there are real risks in being overly pessimistic as we move into 2015. Three key issues are worth contemplating as you position yourself for the year ahead: On a relative basis equities are not expensive. That can be a difficult message for many given P/E ratios are high in absolute terms. There remains too much at stake for central banks to risk deflation in heavily indebted economies. Expect monetary policy to remain highly accommodative for the foreseeable future. Falling commodity prices are net positive at a global level. If sustained, the fall in oil prices alone since June this year would add ~0.5% to global GDP. To watch Miles' recent presentation on the global outlook click here. (VIEW LINK)
Excellent presentation Miles, really enjoyed the perspective on currency and money markets. Highly recommended viewing and some great perspective on many of the big headlines being discussed right now.