Hi Marcus - As usual a nice & succint summary of the situation Marcus!
Thanks Marcus. Most importantly, the market is now waking up to the fact that a global pandemic is indeed happening, and that containment is no longer possible. See my extensive Livewire article published from early Monday morning highlighting a market ripe to be "imminently coronered". So disappointed that Livewire didn't feature this more prominently given the equity markets have predictably cratered since, but it was a well read article regardless....
the "intrinsic value" of a stock is dependent on numerous assumptions and opinions. it's not a pure science by any means.
An interesting read Marcus. Thank you. A morbid thought i know but when thinking of potential winners from this I would have thought deathcare and healthcare would see an up tick?
Reply to Carlos Cobelas - Carlos we used to do our own intrinsic value calculations on all stocks - when you get into it you begin to realise how many (unmakeable) assumptions are made in order to come up with an intrinsic value. It got to the point of stupidity where we were shy of publishing them because they project a certainty and a 'superior' intellect that is believed because of its complexity but in reality simply isn't there. Honest value investors know this. Others think talking about intrinsic value makes them look like Warren Buffett with all the marketing benefits that come from pretending they are. Intrinsic value is not the Messiah as some suggest, it is a very naughty calculation. We now use Thomson Reuters intrinsic values because our calculations come in very close to theirs so why do it yourself. They are useful as a benchmark, but as you say, its not a science, its an art.
Hi Marcus, Yes a good summary. One index I often look at is the VIX. Closed at 27.85% last night. The VIX is negatively correlated with large indices - called the leverage effect. In the last two years it has twice been above 35% so not too bad at present. During the GFC it peaked at above 90%. It can't stay above 30% for too long and will revert back to its long term average of around 12-14%. Hard to judge the severity of a crisis while it is happening but the VIX provides a good measure of how the market is assessing the risk - of course financial risk.
Great article thanks Marcus. I've noticed many gold stocks pulling back with the rest of the market. Maybe this is just a temporary reaction with gold values having a bit of a breather. Possibly there's been some profit taking, covering of margin calls on portfolios. Who knows? With the Australian currency pulling back and the possibility of further rate cuts I would've thought Gold stock values to be moving higher. I'm going to stick with my gold stocks. I also noticed Alkane Resources missing off your gold list. I think they'll do well long term.