Trending On Livewire: Weekend Edition - Saturday 2nd August

Good morning,

The Aussie market narrowly missed another fresh record high on Wednesday, before rolling over a bit in the back half of the week to end largely where it started. The flat close belies what is likely ahead – a volatile reporting season where stocks that miss expectations get hammered, whilst those that beat will be duly rewarded.

This week’s "trimmed mean" inflation print showed that the RBA’s preferred measure is moving sustainably back into the middle of the 2-3% target band. That’s good news for mortgage holders and equity investors, with the market all but guaranteeing a further 25 basis points cut in August.

Globally, US earnings season rolled on with Meta and Microsoft hitting it out of the park, whilst Apple was a bit more subdued. It was also a mixed week on the trade front – Trump did a deal with the EU, then hit a host of countries with new tariff rates, some better, some worse, than the baseline. Japan dropped from 24% to 15%, Indonesia fell from 32% to 19%, but New Zealand didn’t fare so well, jumping from 10% to 15%. As for Australia? We played the role of even Steven – nothing changed.

Having a less fun time of things this week was Boss Energy. Like an atom, its share price was split in half in a flash after flagging challenges in reaching nameplate capacity at its Honeymoon Project, leading to substantially higher cost and lower production guidance for FY26.

Have a great weekend.

Chris Conway, Managing Editor, Livewire Markets

Stop calling markets expensive. They've just gotten better

Everyone’s talking about sky-high market valuations - but what if we’ve misunderstood the entire picture? The ASX 200 and S&P 500 aren’t just expensive, they’ve evolved. Australian equities have shifted from resource-heavy to growth-led, with stronger balance sheets, higher margins, and improved capital efficiency. These structural changes may justify higher PE ratios - challenging outdated comparisons to historical averages. This wire explores whether elevated valuations reflect risk…or resilience.

LEARN WHY

Have ASX-listed debt LITs delivered on their promises?

Daryl Wilson, Affluence Funds Management

Fixed income LITs have gained traction over the past five years, offering attractive yields and access to skilled credit managers. Income delivery has been strong, with yields averaging 7–9% over the past year - well above cash rates. Net tangible asset (NTA) preservation has also held up, although most funds haven’t yet faced a full credit cycle or recession. The main challenge remains share price volatility, which can significantly affect total returns, often driven by broader market swings. While communication from managers has improved, investors must remain informed and avoid reacting emotionally to price dips in order to fully realise the long-term benefits these vehicles can offer.

EXPLORE LITS

Top 3 Wires this Week

Here are the weeks top viewed or liked wires by our subscribers:

Equities

You're fired! 6 ASX stocks to fire, 6 to hire

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Equities

8 ASX stocks, 4 top fundies - what they’re buying (and avoiding)

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Equities

IML's top 5 picks from the ASX 100 most consistent dividends payers

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Some of the best wires from our Contributors this week:

Equities

Housing and defence stocks set to shine

View

Education

Scared of investing when the stock market is at an all-time high? You shouldn’t be

View

Equities

A return to fundamentals

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Chart of the Week: Buying shares at all-time highs: A bad idea? 

This week, I joined my local FIRE group for a discussion on investing, and the hot topic was whether it’s smart to keep buying when markets are at all-time highs. Naturally, the group split into two camps. The bears argued that record highs must mean markets are overvalued, and that it’s safer to sit on the sidelines. The bulls countered that new highs often reflect strong economic growth and rising corporate profits. The data supports the bulls.

In this great wire by Duncan Lamont, Head of Research and Analytics at Schroders, he notes that markets are at an all-time high about 31% of the time. His chart (below) shows that, on average, 12-month returns after an all-time high are 10.4% ahead of inflation, compared to 8.8% when the market wasn’t at a high - with positive returns persisting over longer periods. One comment from the group really stuck with me: most of us invest automatically through pensions, which are heavily allocated to growth assets. That capital doesn’t sit still. All-time highs aren’t always a red flag. Sometimes, they’re just business as usual.

Vishal Teckchandani, Senior Editor, Livewire Markets

Weekly Poll

Knowing that returns after all-time highs are historically strong, what would you do?

a) Keep buying as usual - stick to the plan

b) Reduce my regular investment - playing it cautious

c) Wait for the dip - it’s bound to come

d) Invest more - the data speaks for itself

e) Shift to cash or defensive assets - time to protect

VOTE NOW

LAST WEEKS POLL RESULTS

When asked how much passive investing contributes to CBA’s rising share price: 60% said it's a factor but fundamentals will prevail, 29% called it a major driver, 10% downplayed its impact, and 1% flagged potential negative consequences.

SEE RESULTS BREAKDOWN

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