James - interesting write-up. Let's not forget WBC's big institutional and SPP issue in Nov/Dec last year which has allowed them to provide for and cover its AML issues. NAB's jumbo raising has taken a chunk of equity capital that, given the timing, could have benefited ANZ and WBC if not for its prior raising. The adequacy of provisioning, or over-provisioning, will be worth watching.
The implementation of CET1 at 10% post-GFC is showing to be a masterstroke by the authorities (can't think of the right word atm). Aussie banks are strong and can withstand all the low punches. The new broom Peter King was always going to do a clean sweep - that it has coincided with CV19 is a bit of luck for him. The NAB CR gazumped ANZ and WBC. I think that they will do a CR but they need the NAB one to be cleared away first although it will make it hard for them to set a price. Getting through the next twelve months will see banks in clear air and then that $25 mark should be well in sight.