When will the chaos end? The high-probability timeline for Iran

Three weeks into the largest US military operation since the 2003 Iraq invasion, markets are oscillating between panic and premature relief. Brent crude has swung from $70 pre-war to $119 and back to $99. The S&P 500 has shed just 4–5% from its all-time high. Gold has pulled back 14% from its 2026 peak despite the biggest supply disruption in oil market history unfolding in real time.

This is the moment that separates disciplined investors from reactive ones. The fog of war creates mispricing. Mispricing creates opportunity.

In this wire, we lay out a clear framework: the four key factors driving how long the conflict lasts, why we see a roughly 68% probability of meaningful de-escalation by 30 June, exactly how we are playing it on the ASX, and the deeper strategic opportunity hiding beneath the noise.

What Determines How Long This Lasts

Operation Epic Fury began on 28 February with joint US–Israeli strikes. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on 4 March. The IEA has already called this the biggest oil-supply shock in history. Four interconnected factors will decide whether this resolves in weeks or drags into months:

Military Degradation: Decisively in Washington's favour

Iranian drone launches are down 83–95% from the Day-1 peak of 720. Ballistic-missile production has fallen more than 90%. At least 17 IRGC naval vessels have been sunk. Energy Secretary Wright's target of Navy escorts commencing by end-March is the clearest near-term catalyst.

Mines, Drones and Cost Imposition: Iran's asymmetric edge

Sea mines are the single most underpriced risk. Iran has laid only 12 confirmed mines so far from a 6,000-stockpile. Unlike missiles, mines persist after any ceasefire — clearance could take 3–8 weeks minimum. The cost asymmetry is also staggering: a Shahed drone costs $20,000–$50,000 versus $3 million for a Patriot interceptor.

Regime Cohesion and the Negotiation

Ayatollah Khamenei was killed on Day 1. His son Mojtaba has taken over and the assassination of security chief Ali Larijani on 18 March has further empowered IRGC hardliners. Iran rejected ceasefire talks the same day. We believe Beijing's back-channel pressure (as China hoards rather than releases reserves) is the most powerful force likely to shift the internal calculus.

Oil Bypasses RISK the Houthi Wildcard

Net disruption after Saudi Yanbu bypasses, UAE Fujairah, Russian reroutes and SPR releases sits at 5–8 mbd. But 70–75% of those Yanbu barrels must now route past Houthi territory via Bab el-Mandeb. If the Houthis fully activate, the bypass becomes the new bottleneck. Goldman Sachs is already projecting sharp GDP hits across Gulf states if the conflict extends.

Why 30 June Is Our Probability-Weighted Centre of Gravity

Anchored to these factors, and using data from the Polymarkets ceasefire market, we see:

This gives us a cumulative 68% probability of meaningful de-escalation by 30 June. Even in the base case, oil does not snap back to pre-war levels. Mine clearance, war-risk insurance normalisation and tanker-crew confidence each add weeks of friction. Markets should price a persistent $8–15 reopen premium well into H2 2026.

How We Are Playing It – Our Top Ideas

The conflict has created three distinct market phases. Here's exactly how we are positioned:

Phase 1 (now – inflation fear dominates)

We own the war premium through ASX names with clean leverage to oil and the stickier LNG disruption:

Early Phase 1

Woodside Energy ASX: WDS 
Our preferred ASX energy play. Diversified supply base and major LNG exposure (20 carriers trapped in the Gulf, European spot gas up 40%, Scarborough project on track for 2026 first gas). Trading at roughly 10x forward earnings with a 6%+ fully franked yield — pricing in none of the LNG upside.

Late Phase 1

Northern Star Resources ASX: NST  and Evolution Mining ASX: EVN 
We are aggressively buying the dip in these ASX gold miners. Gold has already fallen 14% from its 2026 peak, triggering mechanical selling as higher fuel costs squeeze margins. This is temporary and overdone — a classic over-reaction we're happy to buy. Post-resolution we get an immediate boost as costs fall.

Phase 2 (resolution window – 6–10 weeks out)

Qantas Airways ASX: QAN 
Our favourite resolution trade on the ASX. Strongest balance sheet in Australian aviation history, dominant domestic market share and international recovery still underway. Currently priced as if the fuel headwind is permanent — a 20–25% oil retreat will reverse the earnings math sharply.

Phase 3 (H2 2026 – growth damage priced, rate cuts resume)

ASX: GOLD Gold (in AUD) — Northern Star ASX: NST & Evolution ASX: EVN revisited
Into Phase 3, the likely cooling of higher interest rate bets and the possibility of the shock slowing growth means the interest rate narrative could turn… quickly. This will provide powerful support. These forces should drive a strong resumption in gold's secular uptrend. Northern Star's KCGM Super Pit expansion and Evolution's Cowal underground ramp-up both give excellent operational leverage into this environment.

What we are avoiding

In Chaos, the Deeper Opportunity

Everything above is tactical and calibrated to the June window (and for a more detailed look, click here to see our interactive playbook) But there is a more important conversation to have.

Geopolitical shocks create indiscriminate selling. High-quality businesses whose earnings power, moats and secular growth are completely unaffected by whether Iran lays 12 mines or 600 are now cheaper for reasons entirely unrelated to their operations.

If you own structural compounders in technology, AI, healthcare or any other theme you have researched for the next three-to-five years, this is the environment in which to add. The S&P 500 is only 4–5% off its highs and the ASX 200 has pulled back in sympathy. Valuations in parts of the market are already embedding a prolonged stagflation scenario that has only a 20–25% probability of materialising.

Tactical trades capture the war premium and resolution rotation. The strategic opportunity is about using temporary chaos to improve the average cost basis of the portfolio you plan to hold for a decade.

In chaos, there is opportunity. The headlines go to the tactical moves. The real wealth is built by the investors who stay disciplined and buy quality when everyone else is distracted.