Whilst all eyes are on the upcoming US GDP print, we ask what are the things we'd need to see to believe in a sustainable economic recovery For surely that is...

Whilst all eyes are on the upcoming US GDP print, we ask what are the things we'd need to see to believe in a sustainable economic recovery For surely that is the bigger picture question, rather than whether the next print (likely to be revised a number of times) is +1%, +2%, or even +3% as many on Wall Street are hoping for. To our mind, we'd need to see at least four things to believe in the idea that there is a sustainable recovery in the US going occurring, which are • An end to central bank debt monetisation • A normalization of interest rates (both at the short and long end of curve) • Balanced budgets in Washington (running surpluses can wait) • Structural reform of the clearly unaffordable social welfare state Of these, it looks the Fed will tick box 1 (though don't rule out QE4), but the other three remain elusive More details here (VIEW LINK)