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Whilst all eyes are on the upcoming US GDP print, we ask what are the things we'd need to see to believe in a sustainable economic recovery For surely that is...

Jordan Eliseo

The Perth Mint

Whilst all eyes are on the upcoming US GDP print, we ask what are the things we'd need to see to believe in a sustainable economic recovery For surely that is the bigger picture question, rather than whether the next print (likely to be revised a number of times) is +1%, +2%, or even +3% as many on Wall Street are hoping for. To our mind, we'd need to see at least four things to believe in the idea that there is a sustainable recovery in the US going occurring, which are • An end to central bank debt monetisation • A normalization of interest rates (both at the short and long end of curve) • Balanced budgets in Washington (running surpluses can wait) • Structural reform of the clearly unaffordable social welfare state Of these, it looks the Fed will tick box 1 (though don't rule out QE4), but the other three remain elusive More details here (VIEW LINK)


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Gold bull since early 2000. Have spent +20yrs working in investment analytics, research & portfolio construction. Author of two books on investing in gold and the causes of the GFC. Lover of markets, competition & technology

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