US 10-year government bonds reached an all-time closing yield low on 8th July 2016 of 1.37%. That just surpassed the prior record low of 1.43% in July 2012 during the depths of the Euro crisis. Prior to that, US 10-year yields had only been meaningfully below 2% in one year since the since 1880. That was in 1940 during WWII when yields briefly dipped below 2% - although only just. From the July low through to the Presidential election, yields backed up at a reasonably rapid pace. Since the election, the speed of the back-up has accelerated – such that yields are now trading just shy of 2.40%. Determining the direction of bond yields from here is critical.