You're fired! 6 ASX stocks to fire, 6 to hire before 2026

In one of Livewire’s most memorable articles this year, my colleague Carl Capolingua made a simple but profound point: investors often cling to losing stocks the same way a monkey clings to a banana it can’t pull out of a jar.

Not because the thesis still stacks up, but because ego, hope, familiarity and discomfort with crystallising a loss get in the way.

Carl made a powerful observation: the moment you let go, you unlock freedom... the freedom to think objectively, reassess the universe of opportunities, and redeploy finite capital into better ideas that can make you money.

This wire puts that mindset into practice.

We asked six respected stock pickers which ASX names they’d let go of before 2026 and which ripe bananas they’d grab instead - in their own words.

Bruce Williams, Elston

Stock to Fire – AGL (ASX: AGL)

The most recent result for AGL was a difficult one; it highlighted quite a few headwinds that the company is facing.

These include:

• A negative earnings impact of $700m from recontracting of coal and gas. This is expected to be offset by investment in batteries, where they aim to generate a return of 8-11%. This highlights that execution on this transition needs to be extremely well done.
• FY25 highlighted a reduction in thermal fleet reliability, with unplanned outages occurring in 2H25. To maintain reliability, increased capex is required, also lifting D&A
• To minimise customer churn, AGL absorbed higher electricity costs (as opposed to passing them onto customers), which had a negative impact on margins. At the same time, volumes were also lower, this is an ongoing trend.

For us, there are too many uncertainties at this point in time to gain a decent understanding as to what the company is worth.

Stock to Hire – AMP (ASX: AMP)

After several years spent simplifying the business through the sale of advice and large parts of capital, we believe that AMP is well positioned to strongly compete in a structural growth industry and represents good value at current prices.

If we look at it by segment:

• North platform has been repriced and functionality improved, momentum on net flows is improving
• The retail super offering has been reinvigorated, addressing many of its structural headwinds
• Bank provides the least certainty, with NIM’s having decreased in recent reporting periods. However, a successful launch of their digital bank will be a big step towards getting back on track

Lastly, management has restored quite a bit of faith in the company by dealing with legacy issues, right-sizing the business, and delivering what they said they would. A good example of this is the ongoing cost-out and simplification program.

With a growth rate of approximately 10%pa over the medium term and trading at 15x earnings, AMP is a core financial exposure for us.

Luke Laretive, Seneca

Stock to Fire – Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC)

There’s nothing wrong with Charter Hall, per se, except that its stock is trading on an all-time high price-to-book multiple of 3.7x (or 25x forward earnings).

CHC is a decent business; it’s managing some great assets and funds under management have grown at a 13% CAGR since 2020.

However, it normally trades on half the current valuation (~1.8x P/B or a PE of 16x). And while the market is excited about the recent ~5% earnings upgrade and the potential further earnings upside from performance fees, we think this is more than factored into the current price, with downside risk from elevated inflation and a more hawkish RBA. 

It’s another example of the market being willing to pay for apparent certainty of earnings growth, when the risk of underperformance rises with expectation and valuation (i.e. Life360’s recent 36% drawdown on a monthly-active-user growth of 19% vs consensus estimates of 21%).

Stock to Hire – HMC Capital (ASX: HMC)

HMC’s funds under management have grown at 58% CAGR since 2020, despite this HMC Capital is trading on a near-all-time low price-to-book valuation of 0.75x (or a PE of ~12x).

We view this discount as a function of three distinct issues with HMC-related investment vehicles, all three of which we see as well on the way to being resolved.

Healthscope is in receivership. HMC investors got worried they wouldn't pay their rent. Turns out, Healthscope have continued to pay their rent, in full and on time.

And fears about a lack of suitable tenants to replace Healthscope were allayed on Thursday last week, when Canada's Northwest Healthcare, who also have Healthscope as a tenant in 12 of its properties, replaced Healthscope with a not-for-profit tenant.

If you aren’t sure about how relevant this is, the rest of the market thought it was extremely relevant - HCW was up 13% on this news on Thursday, 23 November, and the management company, HMC, rallied 20% across that day and the Friday.

After listing on an exceptional valuation, and with an exceptional fee-load for HMC, investor sentiment towards DigiCo has soured. However, let’s look at the facts from an HMC perspective.

DGT met prospectus forecasts in June, won some new customers, and then reaffirmed guidance in November. If you want this sort of data centre exposure on the ASX, you’re typically paying 2-3x price-to-book. DGT trades on 0.58x.

Regardless, HMC continue to receive management fees of 0.55% p.a on Gross Asset Value (GAV)… which is calculated on the independent valuation of the assets and net cash, not share price. So while DGT investors might not like it, HMC cash flow is unaffected.

3) Neoen Renewables:

HMC struggled to raise capital for this $950m portfolio of wind and battery assets in Victoria and had to take the investment on-balance sheet. This has spiked their head company debt. They’ve recut the deal, rolling in other synergistic businesses and are currently marketing the investment opportunity globally.

We think they will get it away. However, in the event they don’t, our research suggests these assets are worth more than the $950m paid and in the event HMC Capital cannot raise the equity, the assets could be sold for a trading profit. In both scenarios, we see HMC deleveraging.

The crux of the opportunity is the opposite of what’s happening at Charter Hall. The market is overly conservative about the rectification of these three issues and subsequently, pricing HMC for a very unlikely, ‘doomsday’ scenario. 

We can invest here with a material margin of safety and expect the shares to, at a minimum, trade in line with book value (1x P/B or c. $4.70 per share), with 1.5x P/B our base case expectation (~$7.00 per share). Our thesis is supported by millions of dollars’ worth of insider buying recently.

Richard Hemming, Under the Radar Report

Top Stock to FIRE – Super Retail GROUP (ASX: SUL)

We’ve been taking profits on Super Retail since it got over $18.30 in September, and we’re sorry to say that we think there is further downside at its current level, at just over $16. The decline came after a long period as a market favourite, but a trading update showed anaemic like-for-like sales growth of 2.6% across the group.

Competition remains intense, with Bunnings in auto, and UK-based Sports Direct in athleisure through Accent Group. 

The dividend yield of 4.7% is adequate, but the risk is at the sales line and any weakness will translate to lower profits.

Top Stock to HIRE – Woolworths (ASX: WOW)

The supermarket giant has historically been a value destroyer, trading on high earnings multiples and low dividend yields, but after some missteps, we like what we see. More to the point, we stepped in and bought the stock after it dived 15% in August following a sub-par full-year result.

Oh, and we sold the outperforming Coles. It’s been a good trade and WOW is bouncing back as a value play.

Margins are climbing, sales growth is low but sustainable, and the company has data levers to pull. 

The current dividend yield is nothing special at 3.6%, but what matters is dividend growth. 

Dividends are forecast to grow at double-digit rates and we think the risks are relatively low. This makes the stock a good one for your Christmas hamper.

Emanuel Datt, Datt Capital

Top Stock to Fire – IGO (ASX: IGO)

The market often mistakes backward-looking yield for forward-looking value.

IGO presents a classic value trap, where investors are sleepwalking towards a fundamental earnings cliff that the current multiple fails to price in.

The engine room of IGO’s free cash flow, the Nova mine, is expected to cease production by 2026. Nova has subsidised IGO’s expensive pivot into lithium, masking execution risks that will become increasingly evident.

Without Nova, IGO transforms from a diversified miner into a holding company with a minority stake in Greenbushes and a capital-intensive headache at Kwinana. 

Greenbushes is a tier-one asset, but IGO’s exposure is diluted, passive and overshadowed by a downstream strategy that is unravelling. Kwinana has proven a capital incinerator, evidenced by massive impairments and halting Train 2. 

We believe there may be elevated capital risk going forward given the weak lithium outlook.

Top Stock to Hire – Meeka Metals (ASX: MEK)

Meeka Metals has successfully made the leap from explorer to producer, yet its valuation remains anchored in developer territory. This valuation differential offers a classic asymmetric opportunity.

With the Murchison Gold Project now pouring gold and Andy Well underground delivering exceptional high-grade intercepts, the execution risk has largely been mitigated. 

We are no longer speculating on geology, metallurgy and operations; we are valuing high-margin cash flow in a tier-one jurisdiction.

The real torque here is strategic. The Murchison belt is fragmented and ripe for consolidation. Meeka holds scarce strategic assets: a new functioning mill and high-grade ounces that regional players may need. Whether Meeka drives consolidation or becomes the target is secondary; scarcity creates its own value.

Investors are currently being offered a free option on the expansion case. As the ramp-up stabilises and the market wakes up to the reality of unencumbered free cash flow, we expect a re-rating over time.

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, FNArena

Top Stock to FIRE – Appen (ASX: APX)

Sure, the share price might go up, one day...

... but why bother?

Top Stock to HIRE – NextDC (ASX: NXT)

A perfect storm has pushed ASX-listed AI-beneficiaries, quality growth stocks and virtually everything trading on an above-average PE ratio into conditions similar to a true blue bear market.

Those investors not able to travel overseas for an annual ski holiday might as well opt for the imaginary down-the-slope experience on price charts for the second half of 2025.

Similar to the final four months of 2016, I have one prediction to make: this too shall pass.

Unless, of course, we are about to experience a repeat of the 2000 Nasdaq meltdown, of which many scenarios and scaremongering forecasts are doing the rounds these days.

I’d like to counter those overly simplistic and misguided narratives by arguing this broad de-rating is opening up opportunities left, right and centre in companies that remain poised for many years of strong growth.

I have to pick one and the one I nominate is currently as controversial as the sector itself, globally; NextDC.

I’d need to write a big book if I wanted to address the many misunderstandings, flawed analyses and forecasts that are currently doing the rounds.

Instead, long-time shareholders with an eye on AI and the future (that’s myself included) take comfort and guidance from the strong demand dynamics that have yet again been emphasised by management in early December and just about everyone else inside this industry.

For those who do not necessarily understand investing in infrastructure, consider this: the ASX’s largest pure play infrastructure owner today, Transurban, only reported its first profit 14 years after listing in 1996.

Data centres are not apples to apples to toll roads, but Transurban never had a Megatrend supporting its outlook. It’s never identical, but those who understand do read the message.

Mark Elzayed, Investor Pulse 

Top Stock to FIRE – droneshield (ASX: DRO)

DroneShield is riding a genuine boom. Q3 2025 revenue jumped 1,091% to $92.9m and the company has already booked $193m revenue ytd, versus $57m in all of 2024. 1H25 revenue of $72.3m delivered first meaningful profitability, with an ambitious $2.55bn pipeline, a growing Counter-Uncrewed Systems’ total addressable market estimated at US$63bn, we see counter drone tech moving up the defence and civilian security agenda.

The issue is price and governance, not the product. 

After an impressive run, DRO now trades on eye-watering multiples - approximately 190x trailing earnings, mid-teens EV/sales and a 160% market-cap gain over 12 months. 

Recent heavy insider and institutional selling, plus contract disclosure controversy, has already knocked the stock 30-35% off its highs and raised questions about governance and potential earnings quality.

Even granting the bull case, a more reasonable defence-tech valuation of 8x trailing sales on $107m revenue implies an equity value near $640m which is roughly $0.90 per share versus a current price around twice that.

With execution, budget-cycle and competitive risks still high, I see a poor risk-reward skew - Great theme, impressive growth but too much optimism already in the price.

TOP STOCK TO HIRE - EVOLUTION MINING (ASX: EVN)

Evolution’s FY25 numbers were outstanding: record underlying profit of $958m, EBITDA of $2.1bn and group cash flow of $787m, with FY25 production of 751koz gold and 76kt copper at AISC of $1,570/oz make it attractive amongst its peers. Gearing is just 15%, while dividends have stepped up to 20 cents fully franked, cementing EVN’s status as a cash-generative, growth and income play.

The macro backdrop is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Gold demand has hit record levels, driven by central banks buying more than 1,000t a year and a surge in investment flows amid geopolitical risk. At the same time, copper is in the early stages of a structural bull market, with deficits expected from 2025 as AI data centres, grids, EVs and renewables soak up supply. 

EVN’s gold & copper mix gives it leverage to both “fear” and “growth” metals.

The stock has already rerated: 1 year total return has exceeded 130% with a P/E around 25-26x. Assuming FY26 EPS of 52 cents on increased spot values or production volumes (modest growth from FY25’s 47.9 cents) and a 26x multiple - in line with global quality gold names but with copper upside - then a 12-month valuation target of $13.50 isn’t a stretch.

Quick Reference: FIRE vs HIRE!

Your turn to decide

Which of the fundies’ picks would you fire or hire yourself? Drop your verdict below.