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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Is Australia Risking a Debt Crisis?

Probably not – but high and rising debt will boost CPI and interest rates, and stifle GDP growth and investors’ returns.
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
Macro

The RBA's "active taper" options and finding "greeniums" on ESG bonds

An active taper is a live option as is the ability to capitalise on "greeniums" on ESG bonds...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

De-dollarisation: the yuan’s use grows, but the greenback’s global role is proving to be stubborn

Our visualisations explore different roles of the global reserve currency.
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Macro

Why AI rather than the Fed will bring down inflation

The professional classes are currently, and rightly, obsessing about the impact that AI will have on them, as Chat GPT gets exponentially smarter. Investors meanwhile...
Mark Tinker
Toscafund HK Limited and Market Thinking Limited
Macro

Three major themes creating risks and opportunities: Gold, China, labour

Three key themes have emerged in the Resources & Energy sectors over the last 3-6 months. First, the recent rise in gold prices initially benefited producers over...
BGL
+3
Rick Squire
Acorn Capital
Macro

Why this former RBA official believes there are no rate cuts on the horizon

Dr. Jonathan Kearns spent 28 years at Australia's central bank. Now, he's sharing his thoughts on what the RBA could have done differently.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Manufacturing in a credit crunch, inflation impacts and Thai rice

This week’s charts begin by tracking the links between previous credit crunches and downturns in US manufacturing.
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Macro

Borrowers have dodged multiple rate increases

Extreme competition in the banking sector has allowed most borrowers to avoid some of the RBA's rate increases
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Bank competition, the incomplete pass-through of the cash rate & loan payments

Mortgage rates have risen by less than the cash rate, although there has still been a substantial increase in loan payments.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Zenith: There are four plausible scenarios for the path forward

In this wire, you'll learn how Zenith Investment Partners' head of asset allocation is predicting the future pathway of markets.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

From fear of inflation to fear of recession, and 2 factors to drive AREIT outperformance

The Australian REIT sector continued its rollercoaster ride of performance, delivering a +5.2% return in April, after the RBA’s pause in rates at 3.60%.The unexpected...
PPC
SGP
Amy Pham
Pengana Capital Group
Macro

What's left to keep inflation high?

With energy and fuel prices falling, global supply chain pressures easing and slowing food inflation, what's left to keep CPI higher?
Max Pacella
Rest Super
Macro

Stock scenarios and considering the peak Fed rate

This week’s charts start with three visualisations focused on equities.
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Macro

RBA flags risk of higher rates

The RBA has canvassed the possibility of lifting its cash rate to 4.8% to tackle its inflation problem
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

What might net zero look like for Australia

A landmark report by Net Zero Australia has modelled what Australia’s pathway to net zero by 2050 might look like. It outlines what we as a nation will need to do to...
Amanda MacDonald
LGT Crestone
Macro

Fed pause won’t save the day

Fed pause amidst economic uncertainty? The Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked interest rates 25 basis points at its May policy meeting, taking the upper end of its target to...
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions
Franklin Templeton
Macro

Why competing narratives mean you should be underweight equities

Markets love a narrative. But the host of competing narratives leaves equities exposed to downside risk. Remain defensive to manage risk.
Isaac Poole
Ascalon Capital
Macro

How to invest for the most anticipated recession in history

Most experts rule out a soft-landing recession, including those at ClearBridge Investments. Here's why and what investments to look at.
TCL
Sara Allen
Livewire Markets
Macro

Expansionary Budget ’23 adds to interest rate risk

Labor budget could boost GDP, adding to the risk the RBA may raise interest rates again in the months ahead.
David Bassanese
Betashares
Macro

Federal Budget 2023-24 – A transitory surplus gives way to sticky deficits

Treasurer Chalmers delivered the Government’s second Federal Budget on 9 May 2023. For the current 2022-23 fiscal year, the budget ‘banks’ another $42 billion uplift...
LGT Crestone
LGT Crestone
Macro

Hard vs soft data: mixed signals

The soft data mostly screams “beware”. The hard data is mostly benign. The soft data might be wrong, but I'm not betting against it.
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Budget 2023: A return to surplus but structural deficits remain

The return to surplus is the fastest since the end of World War 2, but help to alleviate the cost of living doesn't solve bigger issues.
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

High services inflation is a problem for the RBA

Similar to the US experience, core goods inflation has slumped, but services inflation remains high.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The investors' guide to Budget 2023

Jim Chalmers has handed down his second Federal Budget. But the cash splash isn't being ramped up just yet.
ABC
AGL
APX
+22
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Signal or Noise: Was the RBA's May rate hike the right decision?

Will investors actually benefit from the changes coming to Australia's central bank?
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
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