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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Hordes of zombie companies are about to die

In the AFR I write that this column been much more constructive on risk since late May when we determined that interest rate markets were finally pricing in the...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The free money experiment is over - what happens now?

Cast your mind back to March 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic was shutting the world down. To save the economy and thousands of SMEs from going bankrupt, the...
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Recent rally leaves global equities more vulnerable

The MSCI World index has rallied around 16% from its mid-June lows. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared even better, up 19% and 25% respectively from their June lows....
Todd Hoare
Todd Hoare
LGT Crestone
Macro

Why you should ignore this year’s reporting season

In this wire, I’m going to argue that you should more or less ignore the earnings reports that are currently hitting the ASX. As you know, reports are coming in for...
Greg Canavan
Fat Tail Investment Research
Macro

Howard Marks: More reasons for offensive rather than defensive investing right now

The head of Oaktree Capital uses an automotive analogy to answer a question that’s on the minds of many investors today: How should you think about risk? Marks says...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

Aussie housing collapse spreads as Brisbane joins the Sydney and Melbourne crash

There has been an interesting development in the month of August vis-a-vis the burgeoning Aussie house price collapse. We have carefully demonstrated how the...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Bulls v Bears: Why Bridgewater, Citi, Morgan Stanley, and Ed Yardeni are divided on recession outlook

They say that numbers don't lie - but no one ever said that numbers can't be confusing. The signals for a global recession have been mixed, to say the least. On the...
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Why China could have a crack at Taiwan in the short-term...

About a month ago, one of our top geo-political and military advisers—and far and away the most accurate forecaster on all matters China—called to say he had amended...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

What are investment cycles and should you care?

Cycles are part of life. Whether it be the cycle of day and night, seasons, tides, weather cycles from the almost weekly cycles of cold fronts that regularly blow...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Market volatility is here - and it's good news for value investors

Rising inflation, rising interest rates, ongoing supply-chain disruption, and high volatility. Just a few issues troubling investors and central banks at the moment....
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Four strategies for steering through H2 2022

Fears of a sharp slowdown in global growth have continued to intensify over the past couple of months. And after one of the most significant valuation corrections in...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Chart of the Week - Crisis of Confidence

Global Economic Confidence Trends: Consumer confidence has collapsed all around the world this year, nearly matching the pace and magnitude of the drops seen during...
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
Macro

War Lab puts risk of China/Taiwan conflict at 74% in 2020, which Ray Dalio's research seeks to emulate

Amidst news that the US has sensationally relocated one-quarter of its entire strategic B2 stealth bomber fleet to Australia due to the rising risks of war with...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Geoff Wilson and Philipp Hofflin share three lessons from investing in a recession

There’s a lot of talk of recessions at the moment – and that’s saying something, given Australia is not in a recession (at least at this stage). In fact, it isn’t even...
BHP
COL
TLS
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Sara Allen
Livewire Markets
Macro

Higher interest rates creating opportunities

While the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by another 50 basis points this week for a record third consecutive meeting in a row, long-term interest rates...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Are we there yet?

US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell hedged himself very carefully in the press conference following the July 27 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)...
Sonal Desai
Franklin Templeton
Macro

Growth stocks could rebound if inflation turns out to be “transitory” after all

Since bravely declaring that inflation would be “transitory” the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has been ridiculed for being so wrong. After all,...
Roger Montgomery
Montgomery Investment Management
Macro

The real reason why stocks rallied in July - and whether it can last

Inflation is the buzzword of our present time in the markets - and with good reason. After years of central banks suggesting that price rises would be transitory and...
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Can your portfolio survive a 5% cash rate?

With the RBA again raising the cash rate in August, many are currently wondering how high rates can go. Recent numbers show the market pricing in a top of 3%, down...
Michael Houghton
Lucerne Funds Pty Ltd
Macro

Can the RBA thread the needle?

After hiking for the fourth consecutive month, the RBA’s tone has shifted to suggest a pause at the September meeting is possible, reflecting in part the troubling...
Chris Rands
Chris Rands
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

The key barrier to a Fed pivot

While many wait and hope for a Fed pause or pivot - hanging on every piece of text and utterance from the Fed, the real focus should be on inflation expectations....
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
Macro

Luxury housing market is tanking, contrary to what real estate agents claim...

I constantly hear real estate agents tell me how resilient the top-end of the housing market is. There are numerous narratives bandied around, but the essential...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US recession signals a possible turning point for asset prices

We have consistently forecast a US recession using models that draw on both bond and equity market data. Our preferred bond market model was reporting the highest...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Sydney house prices fall at their fastest pace in more than 32 years

The final July 2022 house price index results are now available for analysis from CoreLogic, and they confirm Australia is experiencing what will likely become a...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

An update on inflation

This wire will provide readers with an "Update in charts" of some of the key components we are monitoring for an easing of inflation.  Although brief, this wire...
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
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