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Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Aussie house prices fall for the second month in a row - and the pace of declines is accelerating quickly

In what should come as no surprise to regular readers of this column, Australian house prices have declined for the second month in a row in June--and the pace of...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Post-controversial budget, NSW attracts record $8.9bn of demand for new bond issue

After a disappointing budget blighted by heinous conflicts of interest that are costing NSW taxpayers at least $630 million a year, NSW attracted a record $8.9...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Cash-strapped consumers adopt the 'trading down' trend

Most quarterly earnings seasons have a key theme, a question that crops up in almost every analyst call and press conference. Working from home, re-opening, supply...
Tom Stevenson
Fidelity International
Macro

Perrottet lumbers NSW taxpayers with $106 billion in extra debt

In the AFR I write that after 12 years of Liberal leadership, encompassing four premiers and four treasurers, NSW is sadly degenerating into one of the worst run...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

1 in 10 chance Jerome Powell can salvage a soft landing

Rate hikes are an exceptionally blunt, roundabout way to kill today's inflation. US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell acknowledged as much in his address to...
David Thornton
Livewire Markets
Macro

Why inflation is a rearview mirror story

I read with interest the ‘Livewire readers’ 20 most tipped stocks to beat inflation’ article earlier this week. Mainly because I’ve spent the past few months...
BHP
Greg Canavan
Fat Tail Investment Research
Expert Insights

Soaring energy costs have sunk these global sectors

Supply chain disruption and soaring energy costs have combined to form a perfect storm of inflation.  "The biggest risk on global growth and asset prices across...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Go with the cash flow

The price of gold, after peaking earlier in the year along with the prices of gold mining stocks, has faced the headwind of a strong US dollar. The US dollar is...
Arian Neiron
VanEck
Macro

How to respond as markets near a tipping point

May was a month where Central Bank actions and dialogue were disseminated as the geopolitical risks of the Russian/Ukraine conflict was largely forgotten and the...
Charlie Jamieson
Jamieson Coote Bonds
Macro

The risk of US recession in 2023 surges

The risk of a recession in the US in 2023 based on bond/equity market pricing and forecasts has surged as interest rates have risen and equities have slumped, with...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Aussie house prices could fall more than 30 per cent

In the AFR I write that Aussie house prices could fall by more than 30 per cent if the Reserve Bank of Australia’s fulfils uber-aggressive market expectations for an...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Don't get into brace position for a hard landing - yet

Faced with the current spate of delays and cancellations, most of us would accept any kind of landing - hard, soft, skidding to a halt - just get us home, please. For...
Tom Stevenson
Fidelity International
Macro

RBA model points to a house price slump of around 30%

A key finding from the RBA’s Saunders-Tulip model of the housing market that we have emphasised in judging the outlook for house prices is the extreme sensitivity of...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US recession now likely within 12 months

Given stubbornly high U.S. inflation and the Federal Reserve’s apparent determination to bring it down, I now foresee a U.S. recession within the next 12...
David Bassanese
Betashares
Expert Insights

What China and India's knife-edge ride means for investors

China and India are the world's two largest emerging market economies, yet both face an uphill battle as they reckon with COVID and inflation respectively.  In this...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

US recession risks rapidly rising

Financial conditions are central to the US outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated earlier this year that "Policy works through financial conditions. That's how it...
Anthony Doyle
Anthony Doyle
Firetrail Investments
Macro

Record high inflation could trigger a fresh financial crisis

Italy’s 66th post-war government collapsed in January 2021 when a coalition led by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte crumbled. President Sergio Mattarella encouraged the...
Michael Collins
Michael Collins
Magellan
Macro

Cooking up a housing bull BBQ

In the AFR I write that back in early 2020, this column dusted off its double-barrel “shottie” and went hunting housing bears, which were confidently roaming...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA’s inability to read the (financial market) room again on full display

A 50 basis point hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was clearly a surprise for financial markets.  The RBA’s rationale for increasing interest rates was...
Tim Toohey
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

Chart of the Week - Clues from small central banks

Rate Hikes on the Frontier of the Global Economy: This is one of my favorite charts, and one that helped get us onto the right side of the global policy pivot that...
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
Macro

Chris Joye - Where to hide from inflation

In a rising rate environment, Chris Joye joins David to discuss where investors should look for returns going forward. Throughout the episode, Chris covers a range of...
David Clark
Koda Capital
Macro

3 candidates for tax loss selling that Market Matters might consider buying

Most of us have been guilty at least once for changing our spending habits in June as we start considering the EOFY. I know my “tradie” friends adopt an if in doubt...
ANN
REA
James Gerrish
Market Matters
Expert Insights

Behind the buzz: what's driving inflation?

Rising inflation is one of the biggest challenges for investors today and it turns out that covid, climate change and the war on Ukraine have had driving roles in...
Sara Allen
Livewire Markets
Expert Insights

abrdn's Jeremy Lawson: Markets haven't fully priced in recession risk

Politics and economics are two subjects that go hand in hand. For Jeremy Lawson, head of the research institute and chief economist at abrdn, it forms the backbone of...
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

The falls in share markets this year – the bad news and the good

Last year saw very strong investment returns and was relatively calm in investment markets. While there was a lot to worry about, the biggest drawdown in US shares...
Shane Oliver
AMP
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