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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

The only certainty is uncertainty

The stock market doesn’t view a calendar year any differently from all the other 365-day periods, but January is as good a time as any to look back and learn. If this...
Tom Stevenson
Fidelity International
Macro

Could the crypto crash become a 21st century Tulip Bulb Bubble?

In December 2019, Bitcoin, a decentralised digital currency without a government guarantee, conventional bank-backing, or demonstrated utility as a scalable medium of...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Goldman Sachs hints at more aggressive Fed rate hikes in 2022...

In a research note over the weekend, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote that while they expect the Fed to lift rates four times in 2022, the risks are...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Why equities could fall sharply

In the AFR on Friday I wrote that, for the first time in a long time, we agree with Jeremy Grantham: equities likely need to correct quite significantly. Here are some...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Capital Group: In 2022, the risks are clear but the big picture is positive

Capital Group’s 2022 outlook cuts across global stocks and bonds in the US, China and Europe. It also explores dominant macro themes of interest rates and inflation,...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

Let the wild rumpus begin*

Today in the U.S. we are in the fourth superbubble of the last hundred years. Previous equity superbubbles had a series of distinct features that individually are rare...
Jeremy Grantham
GMO
Macro

4.2% unemployment points to rate hikes in 2022

The lowest unemployment rate in years raises the risk that the RBA not only stops buying bonds next month (which is now widely expected by market participants) but...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

More people are changing jobs/planning to start new work as the labour market tightens, which will add to inflation...

The demand for labour is strong, as reflected in job vacancies reaching their highest share of the workforce in half a century. The supply of labour has picked up,...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The era of stimulus is over

Former Fed chair Janet Yellen famously said that central bank policy should be like ‘watching paint dry: uneventful, unsurprising and dull. She didn’t get her wish in...
Tom Stevenson
Fidelity International
Macro

My recent Q&A on the year that was, and the year ahead

This market insight is a selection of questions from our investors that I answer to provide further insight into the year that was, and our outlook for the upcoming...
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

One major risk for your radar in 2022

Does anyone care that government debt-to-GDP ratios (however imperfectly measured) are higher than seemed possible because interest rates are so low? US government...
Michael Collins
Michael Collins
Magellan
Macro

Titanic economic forces are clashing, and uncertainty is increasing

I have some pretty clear ideas about which trends are sustainable and which ones aren't in the long term. However, the short term is far less clear. A combination of...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates harder and faster

In the AFR I write that you should buckle-up and prepare for a wild ride in 2022. Investors will have to resolve the cognitive dissonance of buying equities at record...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

3 things that went right in 2021 (and six that went wrong)

2021 was a tough year for many. But for those with a well-diversified portfolio, there was the silver lining of solid returns. The ever-popular Shane Oliver kicks off...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Tech stocks and ETFs out, Mining stocks in as US inflation hits a new high

In world markets (as in most things) Australia is a passenger rather than a driver. And that’s not always bad, especially when you're talking about the US Fed's latest...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

The Match Out: ASX down a touch, Commodity stocks rally, Retail & Tech drag, CS upgrades AGL - stock rallies

It was actually an interesting trading session today at the stock level despite the index finishing little changed. The high value (tech & others) were sold off fairly...
AGL
BHP
FMG
+2
James Gerrish
Market Matters
Macro

Why equities ponzi and related Greenspan/Bernanke put option may expire...

In the AFR I write that while the comparatively benign Omicron variant of the virus may provide a path out of the pandemic, it will only serve to amplify the...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

3 investment themes worth backing in 2022

Theme 1 Battery market consolidation Looking back at 2019, we initiated coverage on the battery metals sector and mentioned at the time the market had reached an...
AKE
+1
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

Will higher cash deposit rates kill demand for zero-income cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum?

In the AFR I write that it turns out 2021 was not the panacea to the pandemic we all hoped for. While we made progress, COVID-19 continued to influence life as we...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Be afraid: the zombie economy can’t last

In the AFR I write that the contradictory cocktail of extremely high inflation, zero interest rates, tight labour markets, robust wages growth, elevated inflation...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US core inflation literally off the charts...

The Fed's preferred measure of US core inflation printed overnight 0.5% in the *month* of November and an incredible 4.7% over the last 12mths. The first chart below...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Central banks start to take back last year's rate cuts

Central banks have started to take back last year's rate cuts as their economies have recovered from last year's recession, lifting policy interest rates after...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

MLC: China’s “normal” interest rates boost investment certainty

A more consistent environment for global asset prices and investment is being forged by China’s more “normal” interest rate approach, while other central banks dither...
David Thornton
Livewire Markets
Rapid Fire

3 long-term themes that underpin the "Fourth Industrial Revolution"

Often regarded as investor enemy number #1, uncertainty and volatility are key drivers of the short-term thinking that is so dominant in the retail market currently. ...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

Why credit markets won’t deliver but Alternatives might

If income is your primary investment goal, a broad fixed income exposure  is only going to get you halfway there, at best, based on recent returns.  So said JP...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
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