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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

How concerned should we be about persistent inflation?

At the latest Crestone Investment Forum, held on 22 February 2022, we asked panelists to share their views on the likely path of markets and the global economy in...
LGT Crestone
LGT Crestone
Macro

Risk of huge US$150 billion Russian debt default with consequences for investments in China...

Russia is near to defaulting on up to US$150 billion of foreign currency debt writes Christopher Joye. If China consents to provide military aid to Russia it would...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Betashares Bites: Oil spikes, Putin’s dilemma, Fed fears build

It was another poor week for global equities, with the U.S. S&P 500 down 2.9% and on the cusp of breaking to a new low in the correction to date. Confirmation that the...
David Bassanese
Betashares
Macro

Is this the worst-case scenario for equity markets?

Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine has sent global financial markets into a tailspin. In this wire, Frame Funds Management's Hue Frame outlines what a "worst-case"...
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

The NSW and Victorian budgets are on track to substantially beat state forecasts

The NSW budget shrugged off omicron, almost returning to balance in January in trend terms. The deficit is likely to beat the government's full-year forecast by about...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Putin will seek to salvage power and wealth

The Ukrainian-Russian conflict is more complex than most Western analysts acknowledge, writes Coolabah Capital's Christopher Joye. Here, he makes his case and shares...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

How are global governments embracing digital assets?

Many governments, central banks and commercial banks around the world have traditionally been wary of cryptocurrencies and concerned at their potential to...
Dan Annan
Dan Annan
Cosmos Asset Management
Macro

Australian Dollar: Friend or foe?

For Australian-based investors in unhedged global share portfolios, the Australian dollar is usually our friend during a crisis. Over the past 30 years, corrections...
Alastair MacLeod
Elston Asset Management
Macro

Is this correction another 2008 in the making?

There are increasing worries about the current correction turning into a 2008 type event. From the 2007 peak to the 2009 low, the ASX200 lost 50% of its value. While a...
Greg Canavan
Fat Tail Investment Research
Macro

Airlie: What the macro crossroads mean, and one stock on the right path

The intersection of a tragic conflict in Ukraine and the global macroeconomic flow-on effects, on top of rising inflation even as the Omicron threat recedes, have...
ALD
CSL
+3
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

World order in the balance

In the blink of an eye, the world order changed dramatically and violently as weeks-long Russian threats materialized into full-scale airstrikes and columns of...
Francis Scotland
Brandywine Global
Macro

Commodity prices surge as stagflation fears continue to grow

Markets have been volatile over the last month. First, accelerating inflation and hawkish central banks drove higher yields. Then late in February, a broader risk-off...
Alex Stanley
Ardea Investment Management
Macro
Sponsored

Commodities: Does the Russia/Ukraine conflict reinforce the bull case?

History tells us that geopolitics rarely matters for markets, except when it does, and then it’s the only thing that matters. Recent announcements from Western...
+1
Adam O'Connor
Adam O'Connor
Betashares
Macro

Bassanese Bites: Cuba and Volcker

The intensification of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – along with Putin’s nuclear talk – saw world oil prices surge 26% last week to US$115 a barrel, which in turn saw...
David Bassanese
Betashares
Macro

Investors blindsided by global conflict risks

In the AFR I write that back in October 2021, we warned that the risk of global military conflicts was much higher than many people---including those in...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Volatility persists: Three key positions to watch

In late January, we recommended trimming equity risk and adopted overweight position in cash. The risks flagged have intensified in February. Inflation has been...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

How to think about your portfolio in times of war and rising inflation

My beat at Fat Tail Investment Research is looking for beaten-up/out-of-favour ASX 200 stocks and analysing the macroeconomic environment. Having a good grip on macro...
Greg Canavan
Fat Tail Investment Research
Macro

Inflation risks could trigger tight Fed policy

A risk-management approach to unexpectedly high US inflation suggests that a fast return to neutral funds rate – 2½% on the Fed’s calculation or about 2% on market...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Bassanese Bites: Rising geopolitical risks and portfolio implications

Given the enormity of Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine, this note provides a short update on the potential market implications.Keeping in mind that the situation...
David Bassanese
Betashares
Macro

Wages respond to lower unemployment as the economy rebounds from delta

Wages growth is responding to a tighter labour market, with sub-4% unemployment likely to pressure the RBA as it contemplates raising rates later this year. At the...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Chart of the Week - China property market

China Property Prices: The Chinese property market downturn extended through January, with the majority of cities seeing prices fall vs December, and close to 50% of...
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
Macro

Why Is Wealth Inequality More Relevant Today?

The rise in wealth inequality across several major economies has been noted by many in the community. That this rising wealth inequality has potentially negative...
Clive Smith
Macro

When goldilocks markets meet a Russian bear

Not every investment has an equal distribution of upside and downside. Humans, as a rule, tend to deal with asymmetric risk badly. Lotteries are a good example: a very...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Stocks Neat: Investing in whisky - worth it?

In the latest episode of Stocks Neat, Forager’s Steve Johnson and Gareth Brown answer the age-old question: is whisky really a worthwhile investment? Joined later by...
Steve Johnson
Forager
Macro

Modelling Russia/Ukraine conflict risks (+ NSW dumps Russian loans, as we recommended last year)...

In October last year, we published new academic research on modelling global conflict risks using advanced statistical methods, including artificial intelligence...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
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