fx

Westpac weekly AUD video

Sean Callow

Martina's turn on our brief FX video this week, with the Aussie having traded lows since January. At the start of the week though, the Aussie received a boost from the positive risk sentiment following the first round of the French presidential elections. Martina discusses how Australia Q1 CPI and... Show More

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Westpac weekly AUD video

Sean Callow

The British pound was the big mover this week as the UK unexpectedly headed to the polls. In our brief weekly video, I discuss how durable sterling's rally is likely to be. I also touch on the role of the RBA minutes in the AUD/USD decline earlier this week, check... Show More

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Westpac weekly AUD video

Sean Callow

The Australian dollar was hit hard this week by the market's scramble to price in a Federal Reserve rate rise this month, which boosted the US dollar across the board but last night hit the Aussie harder than most. I note the key comments from the Fed and look at... Show More

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CBA Global Markets - What happens to the USD if Donald Trump wins?

CommSec

CBA Chief Currency Strategist & Head of International Economics, Richard Grace speaks with CommSec’s Tom Piotrowski about what could happen to the USD if Donald Trump won the US Presidential election. He expects a 10% lift in the USD will be driven by the capital inflows chasing higher asset price... Show More

What's next for the AUD, following the rate cut of the RBA this week?

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

Following the reduction of the cash rate in Australia to 1.5% this week, Saxo's Global macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen is now expecting the Aussie dollar to strengthen against the USD. Not because of the Aussie dollar's own strength; this is more of a relative game. Watch the following video to... Show More

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The market may be getting ahead of itself in expecting helicopter money from the Bank of Japan, says Saxo Group's John Hardy

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Group, thinks that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may initiate a 'reasonably sized stimulus measure' before implementing helicopter money. This could happen after the US election as the BoJ needs to feel comfortable before the next phase of quantitative easing can begin.... Show More

EOFY Series: Currency outlook

CommSec

CBA Senior Currency Strategist Joseph Capurso speaks with CommSec Market Analyst Steven Daghlian about his outlook for the Aussie dollar and factors which will affect the price of our currency over the next financial year For CommSec’s Financial Year Wrap coverage, visit www.commsec.com.au/financialyearwrap Show More

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US Dollar might be re-entering the channel it broke during the Brexit referendum

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

The US dollar lost its safe haven play last week when it encountered major resistance from its 200 days moving average level, according to Saxo Capital Markets Sydney-based trader James Kim. In the next few days, the US Dollar Index might be testing re-entering the channel it broke during the... Show More

How to trade the Aussie dollar this week: Saxo

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

The AUDUSD looked weak in the last couple of sessions, following the Brexit UK referendum, but it found the support again above the 0.73 cents handle. According to Saxo Capital Markets traders based in Sydney, the resistance levels remain at 0.7380, 0.74 and 0.7460 while the support levels are the... Show More

Balance of Probabilities Points to Metal Price Downside

John Robertson

The PortfolioDirect theme of metal price movements being dominated by exchange rate changes remains a key part of the cyclical assessment. Between mid-2014 and the end of 2015, the U.S. dollar exchange rate index rose by a little over 20%. Over the same period, the International Monetary Fund metal price... Show More

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USD will continue to strengthen: Van-Petersen

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

Global macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen of Saxo Capital Markets believes we probably will see two Fed rate hikes this year. He expects that the US dollar will continue to strengthen and he finds it very possible that we will test new highs. He is long DXY futures. Click the following... Show More

"We may have seen the top of the AUD at 0.78 US cents", say Sydney-based Saxo traders

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

The Aussie Dollar plunged more than 200 basis points following the release of the quarterly CPI number for Australia on Wednesday 27-April. The -0.2% for the 1Q16 was the lowest in seven years. According to Sydney-bases Saxo Capital Markets' traders, the most recent price actions seem to indicate that "we... Show More

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Weaker USD to be a central theme: Van-Petersen

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

Saxo Bank's Global Macro Strategist Kay Van-Petersen says, that his focus is on three things. Mainly the FOMC minutes and whether the USD will continue its weakness. He also previews rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of India, which he believes may offer opportunities... Show More

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AUDUSD appears to have found a support level at 0.75

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

After five consecutive days of positive gains, the US dollar index (DX) fell and the AUDUSD appears to have found the support level at 0.75 handle. Saxo’s Sydney-based traders expect the AUDUSD to trade below the resistance level 0.76 handle given the lack of economic data this week, until Friday’s... Show More

We're updating our model estimates of fair-value for the Aussie dollar against the US dollar

David Bassanese

Despite higher interest rates in the United States and ongoing weakness in commodity prices, the Australian dollar has broadly trended sideways since late 2015. This note updates our model estimates of fair-value for the $A against the US dollar in light of recent interest rate developments and the December quarter... Show More

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"I'm shorting everything' going into nasty March", says Steen Jakobsen

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

A nasty March is what Saxo's Chief Economist, Steen Jakobsen is expecting. He points to the increasing strength of the US dollar which, he says, will kill commodity stabilisation as well as the ability of emerging markets to revitalise the global economy. He also points to the Bank of Japan... Show More

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We’re now seeing the end of central bank planning, say Saxo’s Steen Jakobsen and John Hardy

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

If anyone had thought that the Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen was going to calm the markets last week, they couldn't have been more wrong. And that proves what Saxo Bank's Chief Economist, Steen Jakobsen and Saxo's head of FX Strategy, John Hardy, have been saying for some... Show More

How low can USDJPY go?

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

Since the beginning of the month the Japanese Yen has only traded downwards against the US dollar. Even with the shock move into negative rates territory by the Bank of Japan has been unable to exercise any lasting effect on weakening the JPY exchange rates. Saxo’s Head of FX Strategy... Show More

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New Year gift to the global economy from China?

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

With the world's second largest economy about to take the largest annual holiday in the world: Chinese New Year. It's worth assessing the possibility of what would be a welcome and, arguably, overdue 'gift' from the Chinese central bank; the People's Bank of China. Saxo Capital Markets' analyst Kay Van-Petersen... Show More

Essential Asia-Pacific Trades for Q1 2016

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

If you follow the Chinese calendar, 2016 is set to be a year of trickery and turmoil and it all kicks off in the first quarter of 2016, says Saxo Capital Markets’ Asia Macro Strategist Kay Van-Petersen. If you want to know about Kay's trading strategies for equities, commodities and... Show More