In this short video I discuss Montgomery Global’s four-step investing process by reviewing a core holding in our global portfolios. If you are interested in the four-steps, watch the short video here. Show More
global economics
We have written on the China “marvel” before and continue to scratch our head on this enigma and the sustainability of it. You have to give them huge credit for what they have achieved – the greatest economic expansion in history improving the lives of so many people in a... Show More
In the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report we looked at some surprising trends in global trade growth. I say surprising not because the improvement in global trade took me by surprise - our leading indicators clearly flagged it last year (when most people were very bearish on... Show More
Just wanted to quickly share this chart - it shows consumer sentiment across developed and emerging economies (GDP weighted) using the Reuters/Ipsos Consumer Sentiment Indexes. The chart (from my latest report) shows a clear trend towards new highs in consumer confidence for developed economies, and while emerging markets stumbled in... Show More
Nouriel Roubini sees pain ahead for the global economy and markets, with a slowdown or recession being the possible outcomes in 2016. “I would rule out the recession scenario because that would require a collapse of China, a collapse of emerging markets, and a stall of growth in the US,... Show More
“The junk-bond default rate rose to 2.6% from 2.1% this year and will likely jump to 4.6% in 2016, breaching the 30-year average of 3.8% for the first time since 2009, said New York University Finance Professor Edward Altman, inventor of the most commonly used default-prediction formula, who has been... Show More
A relentless deceleration in the economies of the developing world will cause global growth to slow this year and only pick up a bit more pace in 2016, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday. Show More
Japan's manufacturing and services PMI indicators are trending around 50 suggesting conditions are flat. Tax collections in May were down 8% from the same time last year suggesting corporate profits and personal incomes are contracting. Air traffic for both imported and exported goods are now both showing negative growth. Taken... Show More
“The worries about a bond bear market are massively overblown” that was the message at the recent BTIM investment forum from Vimal Gor, Head of Income & Fixed Interest. Gor believes global bond yields will stay low and global interest rates will not rise materially over the medium term. Using... Show More
Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC in Hong Kong says ultimately China’s stock market dive will be more consequential than the Greek Crisis. "What happens in China will turn out to be far more consequential than any sting that Greece may deliver over the coming weeks or... Show More
While the Global Economy is still on the mend the Economist reminds us all that “Few economies have ever gone as long as a decade without tipping into recession” and “sooner or later, policymakers will face another downturn.” The danger is that “having used up their arsenal, governments and central... Show More
Our China indicators are largely either directionless or weakening. However, three indicators we track have heightened our risk assessment for the region. Electricity usage has suddenly declined, and tax revenues have also taken a sudden turn lower. However, what concerns us most is shipping rates between China and its main... Show More
Australian Ethical observes indicators that track the production and movement of goods and services through an economy’s supply chain to gauge current trading conditions. Each month they update their proprietary model for the latest figures. We see some softness in recent US data, but conclude it is manageable. Europe put... Show More