global economics

Robert Swift

We have written on the China “marvel” before and continue to scratch our head on this enigma and the sustainability of it. You have to give them huge credit for what they have achieved – the greatest economic expansion in history improving the lives of so many people in a... Show More

Callum Thomas

In the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report we looked at some surprising trends in global trade growth. I say surprising not because the improvement in global trade took me by surprise - our leading indicators clearly flagged it last year (when most people were very bearish on... Show More

Callum Thomas

Just wanted to quickly share this chart - it shows consumer sentiment across developed and emerging economies (GDP weighted) using the Reuters/Ipsos Consumer Sentiment Indexes. The chart (from my latest report) shows a clear trend towards new highs in consumer confidence for developed economies, and while emerging markets stumbled in... Show More

Livewire News

Nouriel Roubini sees pain ahead for the global economy and markets, with a slowdown or recession being the possible outcomes in 2016. “I would rule out the recession scenario because that would require a collapse of China, a collapse of emerging markets, and a stall of growth in the US,... Show More

Livewire News

“The junk-bond default rate rose to 2.6% from 2.1% this year and will likely jump to 4.6% in 2016, breaching the 30-year average of 3.8% for the first time since 2009, said New York University Finance Professor Edward Altman, inventor of the most commonly used default-prediction formula, who has been... Show More

Livewire News

“The worries about a bond bear market are massively overblown” that was the message at the recent BTIM investment forum from Vimal Gor, Head of Income & Fixed Interest. Gor believes global bond yields will stay low and global interest rates will not rise materially over the medium term. Using... Show More