global economics

Everyone has been wrong on global trade growth

Callum Thomas

In the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report we looked at some surprising trends in global trade growth. I say surprising not because the improvement in global trade took me by surprise - our leading indicators clearly flagged it last year (when most people were very bearish on... Show More

I have confidence in...

Callum Thomas

Just wanted to quickly share this chart - it shows consumer sentiment across developed and emerging economies (GDP weighted) using the Reuters/Ipsos Consumer Sentiment Indexes. The chart (from my latest report) shows a clear trend towards new highs in consumer confidence for developed economies, and while emerging markets stumbled in... Show More

Japan downgraded to Neutral. Has China found its low gear? EU finding momentum.

Nathan Lim

Japan's manufacturing and services PMI indicators are trending around 50 suggesting conditions are flat. Tax collections in May were down 8% from the same time last year suggesting corporate profits and personal incomes are contracting. Air traffic for both imported and exported goods are now both showing negative growth. Taken... Show More

Three alarming indicators in China

Nathan Lim

Our China indicators are largely either directionless or weakening. However, three indicators we track have heightened our risk assessment for the region. Electricity usage has suddenly declined, and tax revenues have also taken a sudden turn lower. However, what concerns us most is shipping rates between China and its main... Show More