Donald Rumsfeld famously called them ‘known-unknowns’ - things we sense are important but don’t fully understand and cannot predict. Bob Dylan put it well, too, when he sneered ‘there’s something going on here, but you don’t know what it is, do you, Mr Jones’. Both point to the investor’s greatest... Show More
It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. Like many investors, Gopi Karunakaran from Ardea Investment Management once thought that investing meant having high levels of confidence about the future. However, he very quickly learned the truth; “uncertainty is always there, you can’t get away from it.” Show More
My colleague, Wesley Phoa, argues that “the key to successful active management in periods of elevated uncertainty is not to stake everything on single-point forecasts. Rather, it is the ability to apply detailed policy analysis to a range of scenarios, and to maintain enough portfolio flexibility to respond rapidly and... Show More
