us economy

The latest US tariffs plus extreme policy uncertainty point to a sharp decline in US output and the risk of a synchronised global downturn

US GDP could contract in Q1 as consumer spending broadly stalls on higher actual/expected inflation and fears of higher unemployment

IMF analysis suggests that the Fed is too optimistic on the likely impact of initial Trump tariffs.

The Michigan survey showed consumer unemployment expectations at recession-like levels with a tariff-driven spike in inflation expectations.

The correction under way in US equities has started from a point of extremely expensive valuations relative to earnings and bond yields.

Steve Johnson has refined his process for identifying small cap opportunities over 14 years. Here’s what’s catching his eye right now.

Below is a summary of the topics we covered on Nucleus Investment Insights this month. See the links for more information.

Trump has begun an unprecedented attack on the norms of US lawmaking. The scale and scope of the attack are significant and mostly unconstitutional. The two most...

US public debt is likely to reach a record share of GDP as tariff revenue and economic growth are unlikely to pay for Trump policies.

Barring last-minute changes, the US is imposing punitive tariffs on its close ally Canada, Mexico, and China, with a EU tariff to come.