us economy

US public debt is likely to reach a record share of GDP as tariff revenue and economic growth are unlikely to pay for Trump policies.

Barring last-minute changes, the US is imposing punitive tariffs on its close ally Canada, Mexico, and China, with a EU tariff to come.

Its GDP is growing – but relies upon mammoth, debt-fuelled deficits. Without this “stimulus” the U.S. would’ve been in recession since 2009.

The Fed should forecast fewer rate cuts given firmer inflation, resilient economic growth, and the inflationary impact of Trump policies.

US economic outperformance reflects superior labour productivity, while Australia continues to be powered by strong population growth.

Below is a summary of the topics we covered on Nucleus Investment Insights this month. See the links for more information.

Households continue to follow the US experience, drawing on the excess savings built up during the pandemic.

The Fed hopes it can achieve a soft landing, lowering the policy rate to around 3%, broadly matching its estimate of the neutral rate.

Soft landings are exceedingly rare in the US and the 1990s episode marks the only example of a successful soft landing.

Rising unemployment has almost reached the "Sahm rule" threshold that has historically been a useful guide to US recessions.