While the global economy is seeing its fastest growth in years and the US Federal Reserve has increased rates five times since December 2015 and is on track for more hikes this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has now left interest rates on hold for a record 21... Show More
This week it's wage inflation, but with a particular twist. Utilizing the great indicators from the innovative economics team at the Atlanta Fed, I have built a new indicator which I call the "Stay or Go Indicator". It is the difference between the annual wage growth figures for 'Job Switchers'... Show More
Here are ten things that I think will shape the global and Australian economies in 2018, and that expect I’ll be talking about at conferences and events over the course of the coming year. Show More
In a world post-2000, we find ourselves operating in the ‘new economy’ following the tech bubble and the GFC. Accordingly, the rules of the game have changed. Investors need to consider persistent low interest rates and low inflation, employment and labour participation shifts, and technological advancements, as well as ageing... Show More
To say that Australia's extended property bubble has resulted from merely supply and demand pressures is overly simplistic. Poor infrastructure and property price growth that dramatically exceed wage growth all contribute to the insurmountable pressure for future generations to afford property in this country. Is this really sustainable or are... Show More
Retirement funding is becoming an ever-growing burden on government budgets and 10-year bonds are not offering a fair risk-adjusted return, even after recent corrections. Adding fuel to the flames – relentless foreign indebtedness growth, reliance on foreign equity, low inflation and wage growth, declining export commodity prices, record low cash... Show More
New data from the Atlanta Fed “shows a median wage increase of 3.3 percent in the 12 months through May, a substantially faster pace than even just a year ago—gives ammunition to central bank hawks who would like to raise interest rates in September.” The Atlanta Fed's measure is based... Show More
RBC’s Chief Market Strategist, Jonathan Golub, and his research team say that “bull markets most often end when recessions ensue." And according to Golub, none of the “recessionary indicators” are flashing red at the moment. However, the one thing that could cause them to change is a spike in US... Show More
Here’s the Bureau of Labor Statistics chart showing inflation adjusted earnings growth. Show More
