yield trade

Mathan Somasundaram

Local market bounced back from yesterday’s underperformance on the back of strong commodities and AUDUSD. Banks were up on currency/yield trade while Resources were up on commodity bounce. Aussie CPI data tomorrow…high AUDUSD means outlook is for weaker inflation…unlikely to back any RBA rate hike scare story in 2017. The... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Global markets continue their positive momentum into 2017 on-the-back of the recovery in the US and stability in China, however stretched valuations around the markets are expected to weigh on sentiment over the next few weeks. An improving outlook for interest rates and strong commodity prices has driven a better... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Global markets continue their positive momentum on-the-back of the strength of the recovery in the US and China, however stretched valuations are starting to weigh. The improving inflation outlook and US Fed rate hike expectations have driven the bond yields higher. An improving outlook for interest rates and strong commodity... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Global market volatility is being driven by US Fed interest rate cycle worries and ECB tapering worries. The yield trade will continue to see support as interest rates remain low for longer. Small cap SHIELD stocks continue to outperform the large caps and the overall market over the last year.... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Global markets are currently going through the cyclical September pullback on heightened macro worries. We see global growth remaining weak while easing bias from most central banks will support more stimulus when stabilising force is needed. The US rate cycle will be pushed back to December and the worry is... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Aussie market jumped out on the US positive lead and then just fell apart to finish a slight positive day with “Fed Scare”. The risk catalyst for the market has moved from bottom-up stocks update to top-down macro updates. We have RBA speech tomorrow followed by Fed speech, ADP employment... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Slowing global growth and central bank actions are expected to keep interest rates lower for longer. Investors are being pushed into high yielding equities to cater for the rising cost and falling yield environment. The outperformance in recent months by the small cap yield stocks over the large caps yield... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Aussie market pulled out sixth straight positive day on low bank holiday volume despite weak US growth and mixed China data. That makes it 25 positive days out of the last 32 trading days since mid-June and it also starts the week positive after 3 straight weeks of positive return.... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Macro outlook: Low growth and low interest rates remain the key risks for financial stocks as global economies move from one disaster to another. The turnaround big banks offer better value in low growth outlook as they have relatively lower housing exposure and trade at a discount. Preferred picks are... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Aussie market fell on the open but recovered through the day on the back of the yield trade ahead of the CPI data tomorrow to finish in the black. That’s 21 positive days out of 28 trading days since mid-June. The market was betting on weak CPI data to drive... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Aussie market pulled back with global sentiment as central banks remain on sidelines after markets ran up on stimulus hope. The Aussie market today was a reverse of yesterday as miners and gold were up while just about everything else was down. Super markets were seeing some selling pressure as... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Macro Outlook: Central bank support and weak fiscal reform should keep growth and interest rates low for longer. We expect investors to be pushed into high yielding equities to cater for the rising cost and falling yield environment. We also expect global investors to buy into Australian equity dividend yields... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Aussie market started with a rocket on the back of health care sector in the first hour and then went sideways for the rest of the day. Even if it’s not window dressing for the end of quarter and end of financial year, the bounce in the market form the... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Aussie market started with a bang and then fell apart before recovering to close positive in line with global sentiment. Market getting over Brexit as central bank intervention is inevitable. Brexit will add to already declining global growth and that will flow into lower interest rates low for longer and... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Central bank support outlook has seen the market start to stabilise after Brexit worries drove profit taking. GARY (Growth At Reasonable Yield) stocks were not immune to the Brexit selloff as markets moved to reduce risk in low growth outlook. More uncertainty in Europe and Japan will keep the US... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Aussie market started negative in the first hour before a decent recovery to half the losses through the day. We see the worst of the Brexit selling is done while the risk remains as UK and EU start a prolonged slow path to separation. As with any break up, it... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Aussie market started negative before having a decent relief rally. Brexit has shaken things up in the market and it will remain negative short term for UK and Euro. UK will now move into leadership transition in the ruling party and the main opposition. The leadership change will take a... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Aussie market was once again volatile before finishing slightly positive on another day with very little sentiment and news flow ahead of the Brexit vote. The Brexit vote is in play now…but we won’t know the result till after lunch tomorrow…if it’s close….then we won’t know the result till the... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Aussie market was up and down all day and finished flat on a day with very little sentiment and news flow ahead of the Brexit vote. The global markets are continuing to get over the macro worries…mainly Brexit…rising currencies, rising markets, rising bond yields and improving betting odds. US Fed... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Macro outlook: Global markets are expected to start the chase yield as macro risks start to subside. We continue to like globally diversified business models while small cap industrials remains the key preferred sector/size category on growth and yield to value basis. Bank sector is likely to be the main... Show More