Aussie market had a strong day in line with global markets overnight. The two key risks for the Aussie market in the short term are US reporting season and Commodities. US reporting season so far remains slightly above expectations. But the expectations are for third negative quarter in a row. The next big negative is the risk of falling commodities and the currency as a by-product. We continue to see Iron Ore averaging below $60 in the medium to long term and recent strength is overdone without supply reduction. Oil optimism on Doha deal was misplaced and we should see it pullback after Kuwait strike support wanes. RBA tried to jawbone the market with potential rate cut with weak inflation, but the currency ignored it and moved closer to 78 cents. We see this trend continuing with US Fed meeting next week as another catalyst that will push AUDUSD higher. RBA will be forced to join the currency war and cut rates as employment starts to weaken in the back half of 2016. (VIEW LINK)
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