Aussie market started strong and finished stronger on the back of commodity strength with banks joining the up run. We remain positive on the banks while we remain cautious on the recent leg of the commodity run. The trend is very similar to last year as the seasonality effect and the China growth booster. And we see them repeating that cycle again with slower Q2 and another rate cut in Q3. Aussie market is now trading at historical high valuation on long term multiples. The US market and reporting season cycle with Chinese and commodity cycle points to risky month ahead for Aussie market. Then to add to the risk measure, we have ECB coming out tonight and US Fed coming out next Thursday morning. US Fed and ECB are likely to be catalysts that will push AUDUSD higher on Currency War. Time to be patient and pick the time to buy-in or add more exposure…maintain medium to long term view > long Yield and Gold, short Iron Ore and Oil. (VIEW LINK)
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