Black swan

Marcus Padley

Marcus Today

Black swan events are events that come as a surprise, have a major impact or consequence and are only rationalised with the benefit of hindsight. They are rare, beyond the realm of expectation and therefore not predictable or predicted. Despite what the sales people tell you, the stock market is riddled with uncertainty and if the impossible is possible then you really do have to wonder why our culture projects long-term investment as sophisticated and dismisses short-term investment as somehow unsophisticated. I can tell you why, because it sells, but is it not the other way around? Long-term investment is arrogant and flawed, it runs counter to the statistically obvious and to sell or tell it is a pompous lie. You cannot make long-term decisions about stocks without constantly reviewing the integrity of those decisions. Too much emphasis is put on deciding which stock to buy and thinking that is the end of it, but it denies the fact that anything can happen next. Read the full story: (VIEW LINK)


Marcus Padley
Director
Marcus Today

Marcus Padley founded Marcus Today in 1998 and leads the team of analysts and market commentators that publishes a daily stock market newsletter, presents four podcasts and runs an $80m Australian equity fund. He is passionate about educating and...

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