'Bottom of the Cycle' Leverage

John Robertson


Prices of companies with iron ore exposure were especially strong last week. BHP Billiton rose 6.9%, Rio Tinto added 4.9% and Fortescue Metals Group gained 18.2%. Overseas, the share price of the other iron ore market leader, Vale, increased 34.9% over the week. The equity price action has once again emphasised the share price leverage to signs of cyclical recovery which exists throughout the sector. Prices have declined to such an extent that unusually strong near term returns may arise from time to time even without a sustained cyclical improvement. Uranium is another industry segment which has shown unusual strength. The Global X uranium exchange traded fund rose 11.6% during the week. The trajectory of this indicator looks very similar to other price indicators in the sector. From the longer term perspective displayed in the chart, last week’s gain in the uranium ETF hardly makes an impact on the loss of value through the cycle.


John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...


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