Chart of the Week - A small (monetary policy) pivot

Callum Thomas

Topdown Charts

Small Central Bank Interest Rate Decision Tracker: Back again onto one of my favorite charts — this one tracks monetary policy interest rate moves across the smaller and developing country central banks.

I like to track this group as they tend to be more sensitive to the ebb and flow of global growth/inflation tides, and hence you usually see early trend changes in global monetary settings here first.

So it’s very interesting then to see the pace of rate hikes clearly peaking, and even an initial stirring in the rate cut tracker line.

Not shown here, but it’s also worth noting that the proportion of this group of central banks in rate hiking mode has also peaked and begun to roll over (down to 84% from a peak of 86% — which was a record high).

Definitely an interesting development as the cycle comes full circle.

Key point: Smaller central banks seem to be turning the corner on rate hikes.

NOTE: this post first appeared on our NEW Substack: (VIEW LINK)

Best regards,

Callum Thomas

Head of Research and Founder of Topdown Charts

Callum Thomas
Head of Research
Topdown Charts

Callum is Head of Research at Topdown Charts. Topdown Charts is a chart-driven macro research house covering global Asset Allocation and Economics.

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