Macquarie names 7 ASX stocks that could surprise this AGM season - and 11 facing headwinds

Reporting season might be over, but investors are about to get another health check on corporate Australia.

Annual general meetings (AGMs) often come with trading updates and outlook commentary, giving investors a fresh read on how companies are tracking a few months after FY26 earnings were delivered in August.

And the backdrop is challenging. The RBA is hiking, the consumer and housing are weakening, and geopolitical tensions and energy prices remain volatile.

Macquarie therefore expects slightly more negative than positive earnings revisions this AGM season – a reversal from last year, when rates were falling and earnings revisions were improving.

But that doesn’t mean there won’t be opportunities.

7 stocks that could surprise positively

Macquarie polled its analysts on stocks where upcoming AGM updates could provide positive or negative catalysts, then overlaid those calls with share-price momentum and earnings revisions.

Seven names stand out on the positive side: 

1. Bega Cheese (ASX: BGA)
2. Credit Corp (ASX: CCP)
3. Computershare (ASX: CPU)
4. Lovisa (ASX: LOV)
5. Monadelphous (ASX: MND)
6. NRW Holdings (ASX: NWH)
7. Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE)

There are some interesting stock-specific drivers behind those calls.

NRW Holdings is benefiting from strength in infrastructure and data-centre investment. Macquarie expects momentum to accelerate through FY27 following the Fredon acquisition. NRW recently announced a $115 million contract for the MEL03 data centre stack, with the opportunity potentially worth up to $300 million by CY28.

Monadelphous, meanwhile, typically provides an update on first-half revenue at its AGM, which Macquarie expects will come in above consensus.

Among the consumer names, Lovisa is cycling weaker comparable sales, while Macquarie notes Bega Cheese generally guides conservatively and conditions haven't materially changed since its FY26 result. Treasury Wine Estates could also provide a positive update on portfolio refinements.

In financials, Macquarie expects positive quarterly trends at Credit Corp, while conservatism around Computershare's margin income balances could be offset by higher forward interest-rate curves.

11 stocks facing headwinds

The list of potential disappointments is broader, spanning retail, cyclicals, property, financials and companies exposed to geopolitical and energy risks.

In consumer retail, Macquarie expects the tough household backdrop and potential for further rate rises to weigh on Temple & Webster (ASX: TPW) and Nick Scali (ASX: NCK). Housing weakness could also pressure Harvey Norman (ASX: HVN), while the tailwind from normalising electronics supply is moderating.

Among the cyclicals, lottery volumes at Jumbo Interactive (ASX: JIN) are tracking around 13% lower over the first two months of 1H27. Macquarie also expects a more uncertain outlook from Nine Entertainment (ASX: NEC) as higher rates weigh on business and consumer confidence, while continued volume weakness creates downside risk to the first-quarter revenue and EBITDA update expected from Propel Funeral Partners (ASX: PFP).

There are risks elsewhere, too. Centuria Capital (ASX: CNI) needs emerging data centre business ResetData to turn EBIT-positive in 2H27 to support its FY27 guidance, while Macquarie says quarterly flows at Generation Development Group (ASX: GDG) could be tracking below its annual target based on recent updates from HUB24 and Netwealth.

Finally, geopolitics and energy prices are creating another set of headaches. Macquarie expects continuing Middle East tensions to weigh on Orora's (ASX: ORA) Saverglass earnings and Worley (ASX: WOR) more broadly, while higher oil prices are hurting the earnings outlook for Qantas (ASX: QAN).

Sometimes, less bad is good enough

Now, here is an important twist to Macquarie's outlook: less bad news is good news!

The broker doesn't believe the economy is suddenly falling off a cliff, while difficult trading conditions are already being priced into many shares. That means an AGM update doesn't necessarily have to be great to send a stock higher.

“The consumer and housing economy are not improving, and earnings pressures continue,” Macquarie says.

“In many cases, however, near-term valuations may be too negative relative to the likely speed of deterioration. Cost control and better margins are also likely to offset the impact of weaker top-line trends on earnings.”

That could make the next few weeks less about finding companies booming in a weak economy, and more about finding the stocks where the bad news is already in the price.