Whilst global markets have maintained positive momentum into 2017, valuations look stretched. Markets are going to run into the US reporting season given the US leadership change and the recent rally pricing due to the optimistic outlook. However, US fiscal policy uncertainty, historically low volatility, rising USD, rising yields and stretched valuations are raising doubts on the recent exuberance in the equity market. Strong commodities along with a robust USD and rising yields suggests there is high probability of a correction in one or more of the markets in the short-term. We continue to see a recovering US economy supporting a US Fed move to raise rates, whilst moves by major regions towards protectionism will result in weak global trade. We continue to see volatility rising in 2017 with choppy markets as macro uncertainties remain an overhang. EU break up worries and a China slowdown will start to worry markets in the back end of 2017. (VIEW LINK)
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