We have seen the second sizeable sell-off this year. The SP500 has dropped -7.80% in October (so far), not quite matching the fall of -11.8% in Jan-Feb 2018. The volatility can be an opportunity, and we view it as such. With this in mind, it is worth discussing the technical... Show More
Whilst global markets have maintained positive momentum into 2017, valuations look stretched. Markets are going to run into the US reporting season given the US leadership change and the recent rally pricing due to the optimistic outlook. However, US fiscal policy uncertainty, historically low volatility, rising USD, rising yields and... Show More
Global markets are flip flopping with the US market hitting all time highs. US fiscal policy uncertainty, historically low volatility, a rising USD, rising yields and stretched valuations are raising doubts on the recent exuberance in the equity market. Strong commodities along with a robust USD and rising yields suggests... Show More
Global markets have recovered on the back of central bank stimulus, while global growth worries remain. US Fed expectations of a rate hike are rising, while history shows they are only going to make one move in 2016 and that is expected to be in December. Model portfolio and changes... Show More
The traditional argument for index investing –such as through exchange traded funds– is based on the view that most active managers fail to beat their respective investment benchmarks more often than not. But while this may be true to some extent, it’s clear that some active managers maintain good track... Show More
Strategy outlook: We maintain a bullish long term view on the Australian equity market while short term volatility is expected through the US interest rate cycle and China growth slowdown. We remain positive on the yield and currency trade, while domestic economic deterioration will expose Australia to global volatility even... Show More
Strategy outlook: We maintain a bullish long term view on the Australian equity market to reach 6500 in 2016. Global macro uncertainties, falling growth outlook and the RBA remaining in easing bias has made equities the preferred risk/return option for investors wanting better than bond yield return in an environment... Show More
Volatility is one of the key issues my retail clients have with the current market. Retail clients simply no longer have the appetite for large swings in the market, irrespective of larger returns. The attitude of investors has fundamentally shifted to preservation of capital. In finding a solution to my... Show More
This week’s PortfolioDirect investment report highlights the continuing fall in resource sector equity price volatility. Prices have remained trapped within narrow trading bands. Larger changes in market prices elsewhere have left the sector relatively unscathed. Meanwhile, cyclical progress remains highly constrained. International policy makers continue to feed liquidity into financial... Show More
What would you do if you had to start a new portfolio after a 500-point market rally - like now? More pessimism and lower equity prices would have been helpful. Just two months ago this was the case as pessimism about Australia's economic prospects lingered into 2015 after the October... Show More
Quant Strategy Portfolio | September update - Maintaining three pillar diversification | Despite the short term volatility on the strength of US recovery relative to other regions, we see positive medium to long term equity market prospects due to subdued growth in all other regions of the world. Potential further... Show More
Quant Strategy Portfolio | July update - Optimism offering better odds | We maintain our call from May 2013 that the market will experience a two year bull market to 6500 (S&P 300) based on a US and China led global recovery. We turned positive in the short term on... Show More
Quant Strategy Portfolio | June update - You can't overtake riding in the same lane | Unlike the market, we think the negative outlook for the reporting season is overdone and feel China has hit the bottom. We expect China data to show recovery over the next 6 months. Current... Show More
Quant Strategy Model Portfolio - May update - Macro stacked against May selloff. We maintain our call from May 2013 that the market will experience a two year bull market to 6500 (S&P 300) based on a US and China led global recovery. We turned positive in the short term... Show More
A caution on the banks. The big four banks account for more than a quarter of the total value of the sharemarket is living proof that they're widely loved by Australian investors. But at existing price levels, and taking into consideration what could be perceived as a heightened risk environment... Show More
How we beat the street. Thursday 21st November was the one-month anniversary of the FE 200 model portfolio. It's been a great month - returning 2.5% more than the ASX 200! This is because of good quality companies with better earnings prospects. But our banking sector call helped a lot... Show More