Media Worth Consuming – December 2023

Interesting and under the radar media on finance, economics, politics and society
Jonathan Rochford

Narrow Road Capital

Top Seven Articles

Harvard’s President has been accused of plagiarism in her PhD thesis and several research papers. Harvard initially attempted to cover the up accusations, then had a law firm send a letter threatening defamation proceedings to the New York Post when they asked questions about the remarkably similar paragraphs.

Taking tough economic medicine leads to higher long term growth.

Income tax cuts for Australians are long overdue with the Australia government’s tax collections from individuals soaring due to bracket creep and expired tax offsets.

The critical distinction between positive rights and negative rights.

An Ohio woman has been sentenced to 30 days in prison and 60 days working as a fast food employee after throwing a bowl of hot food at a fast food employee.

Finance

Driven by strong growth in work income, investment yields and cost of living adjustments, US consumers are receiving robust growth in real disposable income. Consumer spending has also increased; these factors together point to a positive economic outlook.

Developing countries have transitioned from issuing US dollar debt to local currency debt, but are still getting into trouble for borrowing excessively. Prateek Gupta has alleged in court that Trafigura knew he was engaged in systemic fraud involving nickel shipments. A London trading firm accumulated £1.25 billion of exposures despite having less than £1 million in capital, before collapsing leaving banks with over £100 million in losses. Energy traders used legal technicalities to cancel natural gas contracts with Pakistan and sell the cargos elsewhere at significantly higher prices.

Shares of Nasdaq listed Tingo Group have been suspended after the CEO and three companies in the group were charged with fraud, five months after Hindenburg Research labelled it “an exceptionally obvious scam with completely fabricated financials”. A Chinese amusement park operator has seen its share price fall by over 90% in the month since Hindenburg Research released a short report. Carson Block has shorted a listed Blackstone mortgage lending trust, betting the underlying loans will take losses as the commercial property market downturn unfolds.

More Australians are lying on their home loan applications. Approximately 1% of Chinese working age adults have been blacklisted for defaulting on their loans, preventing them from buying plane tickets and making purchases through mobile apps.

High quality stocks and sub-investment grade bonds substantially outperform their low quality peers. Private equity firms are investing in the debt and equity of the same portfolio companies, creating significant conflicts, particularly when businesses underperform. 44 of Charlie Munger’s most memorable quotes.

Politics & culture

Joe Biden keeps calling on the rich to pay their taxes but a fourth member of his family has been exposed for falling behind on their tax bills. The latest charges against Hunter Biden raise more questions about Joe Biden’s involvement with funds received from foreign entities. Republicans and Democrats both like tax cuts, but they differ on who should receive them and how to reduce the deficit. Henry Kissinger’s legacy is complicated with some viewing him as a statesman and others holding him responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths.

The Russian government has used the withdrawal of Western companies to enrich cronies. The debate about whether making concessions to free state sponsored hostages promotes more hostage taking. A brief explanation of the Venezuela-Guyana territorial dispute. Major professional services firms are instructing their staff to use burner phones when travelling to Hong Kong.

Politicians often disguise regular spending as “emergency spending” to circumvent spending limits. French farmers sprayed manure on government buildings to protest high taxes and regulation. The US contributes six times more to UN humanitarian aid programs then the next most generous country.

The University of Washington wrote a handbook instructing staff on how to discriminate against White, Asian and Middle Eastern job applicants. A UK charity plans to dismiss its entire board for being “white and privileged”. The ACLU is assisting the NRA in a case that accuses a New York State Government employee of restricting free speech. The Irish government is introducing legislation to restrict free speech after an anti-immigration riot.

Economics & work

Employers are increasingly asking potential employees to prepare lengthy assignments as part of interview processes. Australia’s education “exports” are substantially overestimated, but the extent of this overestimation is difficult to determine as key data is intentionally hidden. The US has experienced a boom in factory construction over the last two years.

Argentina’s economic problems are closely tied to the doubling of government spending in 12 years. The country’s residents have already started dollarizing, with an estimated 10% of US dollars in circulation believed to be in Argentina. The IMF is recommending that developing economies adopt the same big government economic policies that have led to stagnation in advanced economies in recent decades. Spending caps are considered the most practical way to prevent politicians overspending and accumulating ever escalating debts.

Miscellaneous

EVs and hybrids are generally less reliable and have more defects than cars with regular engines. Celebrities are being criticised for flying in private jets while lecturing others about climate change. The world’s largest cruise ship benefits from substantial economies of scale.

Authorities are still trying to figure out how a hungry Russian man was able to board a flight from Denmark to Los Angeles without a passport or ticket. A Japanese man caused an explosion in his apartment by using too much insecticide to kill a cockroach. Cases of myopia have soared in recent decades, with a lack of time spent outside thought to be a major cause.

Baseballer Shohei Ohtani’s record contract is mostly deferred, which should help him avoid California’s high income taxes. Brock Purdy, the 262nd pick in the 2022 NFL draft, is now in contention for MVP honours. Australian Andrew Ngai won his third Excel World Championship.

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This article has been prepared for educational purposes and is in no way meant to be a substitute for professional and tailored financial advice. It contains information derived and sourced from a broad list of third parties and has been prepared on the basis that this third party information is accurate. This article expresses the views of the author at a point in time, and such views may change in the future with no obligation on Narrow Road Capital or the author to publicly update these views. Narrow Road Capital advises on and invests in a wide range of securities, including securities linked to the performance of various companies and financial institutions.

Jonathan Rochford
Portfolio Manager
Narrow Road Capital

Narrow Road Capital is a credit manager with a track record of higher returns and lower fees on Australian credit investments. Clients include institutions, not for profits and family offices.

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