Media worth consuming – December 2025

Interesting and under the radar media on finance, economics, politics and society.
Jonathan Rochford

Narrow Road Capital

Top six articles

US real GDP growth of 4.3% for Q3 with limited population growth makes Australia’s 1.6% with high population growth an embarrassment.

Neoliberalism produced a global wave of prosperity, but many economists have turned their backs on what worked so well.

For years Harvard mocked Bitcoin, then it invested in it right before the bust.

Antisemitism is increasingly accepted in mainstream Western culture.

While the numbers are difficult to definitively calculate, lockdowns may have killed more people than COVID.

The satirical “Government Inaction Figure” is a great way to teach your children about the failures and excuses of politicians.

Finance

40% of Russell 2000 companies have negative earnings, a level typically associated with post-recession periods. Based on the current forward P/E of 22, historical returns point to a near 0% return on the S&P 500 over the next decade. The gap between actual earnings and adjusted earnings has blown out to record levels for the Russell 2000. The accounting treatment Facebook used for its data centre deal with Blue Owl is being called artificial intelligence meeting artificial accounting. Fannie and Freddie have dropped their requirements for a minimum credit score and have been bulking up their balance sheets ahead of a possible IPO in 2026.

The bull case for copper is driven by few new discoveries, declining ore grades and high mining costs, all leading to reduced supply while demand is increasing. America’s era of cheap natural gas and electricity is ending due to declining cheap shale production, LNG exports and rising power demand from data centres. Trump Media is merging with a nuclear fusion company that aims to start construction of its first power plant next year.

Hedge funds have increased leverage, concentration and high beta investments, which could all lead to large losses in a sharp downturn. A German pension fund is forecasting a 50% write-down to its assets when revaluations are completed, with many questioning why the investment committee was comprised solely of practising dentists. South Korean investors who want to punt on high-risk financial instruments are now required to watch an hour-long video to be approved to trade. Private credit defaults will rise, but that’s why you get paid a premium over the risk-free rate.

Politics & culture

Republicans used to use socialism as an insult, but under Trump it is being embraced. As Democrats try to tar Trump for his Epstein association, Republicans are threatening contempt of Congress charges against the Clintons for failing to testify about their relationship with Epstein. In the 1990’s, Donald Trump claimed two rental properties were his primary residence, the same issue he is now pursuing a Fed member over. After Trump stacked the board with loyalists, the Kennedy Center for Performing Arts board has voted to rename the building the Trump Kennedy Center. Texas Republicans manipulated polling to entice a high-profile Democrat into running for the Senate. Identical twin brothers are campaigning on opposite sides of US politics, but they still get along well.

Federal investigators estimate Minnesota’s “industrial scale fraud” cost taxpayers $9 billion over seven years, with an independent journalist highlighting $110 million of suspect grant recipients in one day. Minnesota government employees have called out Governor Tim Waltz for retaliating against whistleblowers who tried to stop the fraud. A Florida Congresswoman has been indicted for fraud after allegedly stealing $5 million in disaster relief funding.

Corruption in Ukraine goes to the top, with the Zelensky Administration sabotaging efforts to expose it. After Belgium and Italy pushed back, the EU capitulated on its threat to use Russian central bank assets to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction, opting instead for more debt. Jamie Dimon criticised Europe for driving out businesses and investment through bureaucracy. The US and the EU are trading punches over whether American free speech or European restricted speech will prevail, with recent examples highlighting egregious government interference in speech.

If the Venezuelan government uses drug money to fund terrorist activities targeting the US, the US government has the right to fight back. The New York Times debunked a story by the Washington Post that claimed Pete Hegseth ordered a second strike against the survivors of a boat transporting drugs. Rather than cracking down on crime, New York and other states are shaking down carmakers, claiming their cars are too easy to steal. A NSW police officer has been found guilty of dangerous driving causing death for parking his car in the likely pathway of a youth riding a stolen motorbike.

British police are sick of being asked to investigate online comments and are proposing the elimination of “non-crime hate incidents”. A British proposal to drop jury trials except for severe crimes would likely lead to more convictions, especially in free speech cases. A family of burglars that stole more than £1.2 million of property in the UK was given six to ten-year jail sentences, which will be mostly avoided as they will be deported and fined £1 each.

China lost a $24 billion Covid damages case in Missouri, and has responded by launching defamation proceedings in China against key Missouri government officials. Japan has shown the rest of the world how to build a rare earths supply chain not subject to Chinese government whims.

DEI initiatives were often implemented by older white men who choked off the careers of younger white men, particularly in print media, TV and academia. California is being sued by migrant groups after cancelling the truck driving licences of 19,999 illegal aliens. 43% of Scottish school children are classified as having special needs, which can entitle them to additional tuition and exam time. A Lincolnshire man was fined £150 for spitting out a leaf that blew into his mouth.

Economics & work

America’s health care system has amongst the highest levels of government control in the world, which explains why it is so expensive, but it is still better than the nationalised system of healthcare in the UK. Many European nations have enormous unfunded pension liabilities that will weigh down taxpayers in the coming decades. Government spending caps deliver great outcomes for taxpayers. When local government debt is included, China’s government debt to GDP ratio is estimated to exceed 200%.

A study of OECD nations found a 1% increase in government spending reduces GDP growth by 0.09% in the next year. An Argentinian explains from personal experience, how the outcomes from Democratic Socialism never live up to the promises. Supporters of Trump’s tariffs are able to point to lower than expected inflation and exporters eating some of the tariffs as signs of “success”. Taxpayer-funded baby subsidies have little impact on birth rates in the long term.

Miscellaneous

As more Americans feel they are being scammed by big business, some are responding by scamming them back. The former morgue manager at Harvard has been sentenced to eight years’ imprisonment for selling donated body parts. An American gambling company has been forced by its regulator to payout after a gambler found a glitch and exploited it for a $934,000 win. A raccoon broke into a Virginia liquor store, where it smashed bottles, got drunk and then passed out in the toilet. 

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This article has been prepared for educational purposes and is in no way meant to be a substitute for professional and tailored financial advice. It contains information derived and sourced from a broad list of third parties and has been prepared on the basis that this third party information is accurate. This article expresses the views of the author at a point in time, and such views may change in the future with no obligation on Narrow Road Capital or the author to publicly update these views. Narrow Road Capital advises on and invests in a wide range of securities, including securities linked to the performance of various companies and financial institutions.

Jonathan Rochford
Portfolio Manager
Narrow Road Capital

Narrow Road Capital is a credit manager with a track record of higher returns and lower fees on Australian credit investments. Clients include institutions, not for profits and family offices.

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