Minack: The one indicator I’m watching

Gerard Minack has given a comprehensive interview to the ABC covering recession, politics, property bubbles, equities and Greece. Minack says Australia is unlikely to see a recession this year but it is still on the cards for CY16/17. “The one indicator I'm watching I think, stands head and shoulders above everything else, is employment. The underlining fundamentals remain weak but, to tip us over the edge from this sort of low growth phase we've been in for 18 months, you really need job losses.” Minack says that CAPEX decline, a deteriorating car industry and the strength of the retail sector will be critical for the employment outlook. “I'd actually be quite surprised if we avoided recession given the size of the adjustment we have to go through over the next three or four years. Australia's not ending a once in a generation boom. It's ending a once in a century boom.” Click here for the full interview and transcript (VIEW LINK)