Oppenheimer 2015 outlook: The Current Cycle will ultimately be the longest on record

Oppenheimer 2015 outlook: The Current Cycle will ultimately be the longest on record. It's said that business cycles always end the same way: The Fed murders them with rate hikes. By the time that happens, equity valuations are typically elevated, complacency has set in, credit growth has been robust and less discriminate, and pundits are ignoring clear warning signs (e.g. a flattening yield curve) from the bond market. Today, equity valuations are generally fair in absolute terms and cheap relative to bonds. Inflation is not a concern, the yield curve is relatively steep, and macro models of the credit cycle are assigning a near-zero probability of the credit turmoil that precedes a poorer risk/return profile for risk assets. (VIEW LINK)


2 topics

Livewire News brings you a wide range of financial insights with a focus on Global Macro, Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities.

Expertise

No areas of expertise

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.