Oppenheimer 2015 outlook: The Current Cycle will ultimately be the longest on record

Oppenheimer 2015 outlook: The Current Cycle will ultimately be the longest on record. It's said that business cycles always end the same way: The Fed murders them with rate hikes. By the time that happens, equity valuations are typically elevated, complacency has set in, credit growth has been robust and less discriminate, and pundits are ignoring clear warning signs (e.g. a flattening yield curve) from the bond market. Today, equity valuations are generally fair in absolute terms and cheap relative to bonds. Inflation is not a concern, the yield curve is relatively steep, and macro models of the credit cycle are assigning a near-zero probability of the credit turmoil that precedes a poorer risk/return profile for risk assets. (VIEW LINK)

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