The markets continue to look like Louis Vuitton – where the glamorous and sparkly are eye-wateringly priced compared to the ordinary. Wealth inequality means an increasing percentage of the population will baulk at the ridiculous price of anything, and the same should apply to stock prices. Show More
In the last part of this video series, we discuss how we are finding opportunities in Asia that may be surprising. Show More
Finding the next a2 Milk is no easy task; there’s no sure-fire way of identifying which stock will go up 500%+. However, each year there are a number of small caps that at least double, and these stocks have some defining features that investors can look for. Show More
This week it's the PE10 and the impact of the financial crisis. Specifically what we're looking at is how the PE10 or CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings) ratio would look like if you excluded the impact of the crash in earnings during the financial crisis. The bottom line is... Show More
The rhythm of life is no different to the rhythm of economic and corporate cycles. The optimism of birth, the excitement of growing up, the cynicism arising from the compromises that come with maturity, the tumult of unfair turns and the joys of victory, all in turn impacting upon performance.... Show More
Little on the face of it, but from an investment perspective quite a lot. They are both second-order beneficiaries of someone else’s investment boom. The jeans manufacturer grew out of a dry goods business set up in San Francisco to supply the thousands of hopeful miners who flocked to California... Show More
A2 Milk has posted great results with an almost 50% increase in revenue, but it strengthens the perspective that many valuations of businesses remain disconnected from whatever levels of cashflow are evident. It’s as if a bunch of birds in the bush are better than one in the hand. Show More
I’m going out on a limb and calling it now: 2018 will be the year of the unloved asset. In particular, investors in the oil and the energy sector will be well placed for a reasonably strong bounce back in the first half of this year, a shift that’s already... Show More
Here's an updated scan across countries and regions to find the top (and bottom) PE10, and follows on from a previous version I shared back in August last year. Briefly on methodology, the PE10 is a stock market valuation metric which compares the stock index to the average earnings of... Show More
Guns N’ Roses released their first debut album titled “Appetite for Destruction” in July 1987. Three months later one of the most violent and unexpected equity market corrections in US history occurred. The Dow lost 22.6% of its value on Black Monday, and the causes behind the dramatic fall are... Show More
We often read that Abenomics continues to divide people as to whether it is working, and if this policy platform advocated strongly by Prime Minister Abe since his election in 2012 will ever achieve its objective of moving Japan’s economy forward. We believe that Abenomics is working, however we feel... Show More
In his excellent new quarterly letter, ‘Oh, the good old days’, Legendary value investor, Jeremy Grantham, rips into the reasons and ramifications of the richly valued S+P500 that has had an average PE 65% higher in the twenty years since 1997 than the period before. He blames abnormally high US... Show More
Those that follow my personal account on Twitter https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it's just a... Show More
Here's the latest weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm. In this edition I include a broad mix of charts with some flagging bearish signals, and others presenting a more bullish case. They include: 50-day moving average breadth, an interesting analog chart, a couple of views of investor sentiment, the implications of the CBOE... Show More
Passive ETFs returns have been strong, fees have remained low and exposure to the most popular technology stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google – the FANG stocks) has been a boon for investors. Passive ETFs have become so popular that they’re potentially becoming victims of their own success. The FANG... Show More
Our outlook for the S&P 200 Index this quarter remains weak. Valuations are still far from cheap territory and corporate earnings are still under downward pressure. As can be seen in the chart below, market prices continue to languish below the market’s previous uptrend line that had been in place... Show More
This is impossible to know with certainty in advance. Our view remains that further falls and volatility in next few months could occur as worries regarding China and emerging markets linger, concerns about whether the Fed will raise interest rates soon will remain and seasonal weakness continues into September/October. However,... Show More
Bearish on China, but bullish on Chinese equities: Kay Van-Petersen (VIDEO) Show More
Oppenheimer 2015 outlook: The Current Cycle will ultimately be the longest on record. It's said that business cycles always end the same way: The Fed murders them with rate hikes. By the time that happens, equity valuations are typically elevated, complacency has set in, credit growth has been robust and... Show More
Why do stock markets bears in the US always pop out of the woodwork whenever there's a pullback in equities? Betting against US equities has rarely paid off from a historical standpoint, yet it seems like there are just as many bears as bulls these days. Yahoo Finance posted a... Show More